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Germany Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Oct 2010, Pages: 85
The Germany Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Germany's oil and gas industry.
The latest Germany Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for 17.84% of developed European regional oil demand by 2014, while making a contribution of just 1.08% to supply.
In Developed Europe, overall oil consumption is forecast to average an estimated 13.10mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010. It is set to recover to around 13.29mn b/d by 2014. Developed Europe regional oil production was 6.96mn b/d in 2001, and is expected to average an estimated 4.45mn b/d in 2010. It is set to fall to just 3.69mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing steadily because supply is contracting and demand is rising, albeit slowly. In 2010, net crude imports are set to be an estimated 8.65mn b/d. By 2014, they are expected to have reached 9.60mn b/d. Norway will remain the only major net exporter, with the UK a net importer.
As regards natural gas, the Developed Europe region is expected to consume an estimated 419.5bcm in 2010, with demand of 458.1bcm targeted for 2014, representing 9.2% growth. Production of an estimated 259.3bcm in 2010 is set to fall to 259bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2010 level of 156.6bcm to some 199.1bcm by the end of the period. Germany’s share of gas consumption in 2010 will be an estimated 19.07%, while it will account for around 4.63% of production. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 18.90%, with a 4.05% share of production. For 2010 as a whole, we continue to assume an average OPEC basket price of US$83.00/bbl (+36.4% yo- y). Risk is now clearly on the downside, thanks to the slow progress made during June-August.
However, a full year outturn in excess of US$80 remains a strong possibility and we see no need to review our assumptions at this point. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$85.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$89.74. Our central assumption for 2012 and beyond is an OPEC price averaging US$90.00/bbl, delivering WTI at just over US$95.00.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$95.45/bbl. The overall y-o-y rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 36%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$93.23/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 35% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$95.90/bbl, compared with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$83.53/bbl, up 41% from the previous year’s level.
BMI forecasts German real GDP growth of 2.0% in 2010. We are assuming 1.7% average annual growth in 2010-2014. Our forecast is for minimal oil demand growth to 2014, with end-period consumption at no more than 2.37mn b/d after declining demand in 2009/10. Gas consumption is now 24% of primary energy demand, accounting for 11% of power generation supply. Our estimate is for gas demand to rise from an estimated 80bcm in 2010 to 86.6bcm by 2014. Germany’s gas production is forecast to fall from an estimated 12.0bcm in 2010 to 10.5bcm over the period.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting a decline in German oil and gas liquids consumption of 7.40%, with volumes peaking at 2.41mn b/d in 2011, then heading lower to 2.26mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Production is set to fall from an estimated 52,000b/d to just 25,000b/d during the same period. Gas demand should rise from the estimated 2010 level of 80bcm to a peak of 90bcm by 2017/2018, before slipping back to 88bcm by 2019. Imports are expected to peak at 81bcm in 2018, in the form of pipeline volumes. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
According to BMI’s country risk team, Germany’s long-term political risk score is 85.8 out of 100, compared with the Developed Markets average of 86.7 and the global average of 63.0. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 67.3, above the Developed Markets average of 66.8 and above the global average of 53.2. Germany has a privatised energy sector operating under EU guidelines. There is a small upstream oil and gas segment, with international oil company (IOC) and local company involvement. Downstream oil features a mixture of IOCs and domestic companies, while gas and electricity interests remain in largely German (non-state) hands.
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