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China: The New Land of Opportunity - China’s Impact on the Global Optical Communications Industry
Lightcounting, Nov 2010, Pages: 30
Impact made by China on the Global Optical Communications Industry over the last decade is remarkable. Increasing investments in networking infrastructure helped to sustain the global telecom industry during the downturns of 2001-2003 and 2008-2009. Success of Huawei and ZTE has transformed the landscape of the networking equipment market. Significant portion of manufacturing of optical component and modules has been moved to China after the telecom crash of 2001 and helped to foster numerous domestic suppliers. This report offers analysis of challenges and opportunities for Chinese service providers, equipment manufacturers and optical component and module vendors. It also includes profiles of major optical communication equipment, module and component vendors based in China.
It is hard to underestimate the impact made by China on the global optical communications industry over the last decade. Rapid industrial development of the country spearheaded by the Chinese government affected many global industries, and the optical communications industry is no exception.
China’s impact is observable across the whole supply chain of the industry:
- Domestic infrastructure projects drive demand for optics (from FTTx to wireless backhaul to 40 Gbps systems).
- Chinese network equipment vendors led by Huawei gain market share globally by delivering more cost effective solutions.
- All major suppliers of optical components and modules move manufacturing to China, and many new local companies enter the market.
The Chinese government maintained steadily increasing levels of investment into optical networking over the last decade, while similar projects in many western countries were subjected to delays during economic downturns in 2001–2003 and 2008–2009. After significant increases in capital expenditures (capex) of three major service providers in China in 2008–2009, capex has declined by 13% in 2010, as the government tries to slow down growth of the economy. However, continuing investments in networking infrastructure remain on the top of government agenda. The government budgeted almost $60 billion for deployment of wireless systems in 2011–2012 and $22 billion for new fiber optic networks in 2011–2013. While the total capex allocated for 2011-2013 is almost equal to investments made in 2010, larger fraction of capex is allocated for the latest generations of wireless and broadband access systems.
As the national network system becomes mature, slowdown in networking infrastructure deployments in China is inevitable. However, progress made by China sets an example for a number of emerging economies that are likely to increase investments in networking infrastructure as their economies develop. Recognizing this trend, Chinese equipment manufacturers, lead by Huawei, are increasing focus on these developing economies that are prime for growth.
Huawei is certainly one of the great success stories in the telecom equipment market. Huawei displaced Alcatel-Lucent in the number-one position in optical networking two years ago, and it is likely to surpass Ericsson as the largest supplier of wireline and wireless equipment this year. Despite the phenomenal growth in Huawei’s business, there are certainly limits to how dominant any company can become. Mature markets are usually dominated by three major players, creating a stable environment where coalition of two out of the three is strong enough to block any predatory intentions that the third might have. This suggests that ZTE and FiberHome are likely to gain share in the domestic market and that Alcatel-Lucent and Ericsson should be able to limit Huawei’s dominance on a global scale.
Local suppliers of optical components and modules used in communication networks have directly benefited from domestic infrastructure projects and growing global presence of Chinese equipment manufacturers such as Huawei and ZTE. However, Chinese optical component and module vendors remain smaller than western competitors. Continuing dominance of the western component and module suppliers is supported by their extensive manufacturing facilities in China, making their manufacturing cost comparable to Chinese vendors. The western companies have also an advantage in global presence, while Chinese suppliers are mostly selling into domestic market despite their efforts to increase global presence. Limited sales of Chinese suppliers to the datacom market segment further limit their business growth. Building a solid intellectual property base and catching up with competition in 10 Gbps and 40 Gbps technologies are among many challenges faced by the local manufacturers or optical component and modules.
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