|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
France Agribusiness Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Nov 2010, Pages: 45
The France Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on France's agribusiness service.
The dairy crisis continues to overshadow other issues in French agriculture, with recent falls in farmgate milk prices showing that the country's dairy farmers are not out of the woods yet. The High- Level Group (HLG) has released its recommendations, which include boosting the collective bargaining power of producers; work on labelling and transparency in the supply chain, and a possible futures market. Regardless, we expect consolidation in the industry and the lifting of EU quotas to bring production increases over our forecast period. But with some way to go before any of the HLG's proposals see the light of day, the dairy industry is unlikely to see an end to turmoil soon.
Key Views:
- We are forecasting 2010 milk production to rise to 23.8mn tonnes (up 132,000 tonnes from our last report). Over our forecast period, we expect to see an increase in milk production of 2.5% over the 2009 level to reach 24.2mn tonnes in 2014.
- We have reduced our wheat forecast for 2009/10 following reports that high temperatures and water droughts in several key areas have damaged soft wheat yields. In 2008/09, wheat production stood at 38.3mn tonnes. We are now forecasting this to fall 1.4% year-on-year to 37.8mn tonnes in 2009/10.
- The tough economic situation means demand for poultry is growing more slowly than it might. This, as well as poor export performance, is weighing on production levels in 2010. We forecast production will fall to 1.66mn tonnes in 2010. Over our forecast period, we expect a decline in output of 4.76%, to 1.59mn tonnes in 2014.
Industry Developments The HLG has made seven recommendations to improve the crisis-stricken dairy industry. They include improving contractual relations between producers and processors; improving the collective bargaining power of producers; involving interbranch organisations in the dairy sector; improving transparency in the dairy supply chain; new market measures and a futures market; improving marketing standards and labelling; and increasing innovation and research in rural development.
The removal of EU dairy quotas at the rate of 1% per year may be provoking consolidation in the French dairy industry. In June, Sodiaal announced it had reached a preliminary agreement to take over rival Entremont Alliance to create what would be Europe's fourth-largest dairy group. Later the same month, two more French dairy companies, Glac and Eurial, announced their intent to merge.
France is leading the charge against a possible free trade agreement with Mercosur. French farmers groups fear that the mooted deal will result in a flood of cheap poultry and beef imports from South America, threatening their own profitability. The possibility of such a deal being implemented within our outlook window poses downside risk to our production forecasts and upside to consumption forecasts.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
Customers who bought this item also bought
France Agribusiness Report Q4 2010
France Agribusiness Report Q2 2011
Saudi Arabia Agribusiness Report Q1 2012
Romania Agribusiness Report Q3 2011
France Agribusiness Report Q1 2012
Spain Agribusiness Report Q4 2010
Morocco Agribusiness Report Q4 2010
France Agribusiness Report Q2 2012
France Agribusiness Report Q2 2010
Italy Agribusiness Report Q3 2011
|
|
|
|
