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Kazakhstan Food and Drink Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Nov 2010, Pages: 53
The Kazakhstan Food and Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, food and drink associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Kazakhstan's food and drink industry.
The analysts remain upbeat about the consumer outlook for Kazakhstan, which will be buoyed by the country’s expanding economy and its integration into the wider European and global networks that are helping reduce the impact of external shocks and put the economy on a more sustainable growth path. Moreover, the Kazakh government's drive to diversify the non-oil sector and invest in developing strategic industries (which are expected to include retail and manufacturing), as well as the national infrastructure, supports our favourable long-term outlook for the economy. This will mean more employment opportunities, crossborder investments and demand for primary and processed exports for Kazakh industries, which will also benefit from low costs of manufacturing. In the meantime, the Kazakh consumer will become instrumental in driving growth dynamics over the long term, supported in particular by the expanding availability of credit, which will bode well for the performance of the country’s food and drinks as well as mass grocery retail (MGR) industries.
Headline Industry Data:
- 2010 per capita food consumption = +5.7%, forecast to 2015: +51.4%
- 2010 alcoholic drinks sales = +5.9%; forecast to 2014= +59.1%
- 2010 soft drinks sales = +5.6%; forecast to 2014= +61.1%
Key Company Trends:
Position-Strengthening Consolidation in the Beer Industry - In August 2010, Dutch Carlsberg's key subsidiary Baltika-Almaty merged with Derbes from Kazakhstan, as part of the multinational brewer's plans to integrate companies in its group. This should provide Carlsberg with a stronger platform to take advantage of rapidly rising demand for beer in Kazakhstan. As a consumer goods market and more specifically as a market for beer, it carries significant promise. According to Carlsberg, the Kazakh beer market has grown by 100% since 1999, with future growth likely to be driven by the currently low per capita consumption levels, rising disposable incomes, growing multinational interest as well as growing population numbers and increased penetration of modern retail channels.
Key Risks to Outlook:
Tripartite Customs Union – The tripartite customs union between Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus, which came into full effect in July 2010, created doubts over Kazakhstan's positioning within the economic space. Key risks at this stage include a potential surge in inflation from normalised tariff arrangements (to reflect the more import-restrictive Russian system), overbearing economic dominance from Russia (which could hurt ongoing efforts by Kazakhstan to diversify its export routes and domestic economy), and ongoing disputes between Moscow and Minsk over energy tariffs. While the union certainly presents major economic opportunities for Kazakhstan, particularly in drawing in more foreign direct investment, we stress that its existence beyond the medium-term remains in jeopardy.
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