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Hong Kong Oil & Gas Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Nov 2010, Pages: 70
The Hong Kong Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Hong Kong's oil and gas industry.
The latest Hong Kong Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for just 1.09% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2015, while making no contribution to supply. Regional oil use of 21.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 will hit an estimated 27.11mn b/d in 2010, then rises to around 30.64mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was around 8.35mn b/d in 2001, and will average an estimated 8.91mn b/d in 2010. It is set to decrease slightly to 8.89mn b/d by 2015. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was importing an average of 13.07mn b/d. This total will rise to an estimated 18.20mn b/d in 2010, and is forecast to reach 21.75mn b/d by 2015. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2015 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region is expected to consume 489bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 633bcm is targeted for 2015. Production of an estimated 412bcm in 2010 should reach 548bcm in 2015, implying net imports rising from around 77bcm to 84bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. HK’s estimated share of gas consumption in 2010 is 0.54%, and it has no share of production. By 2015 its share of gas consumption is forecast to remain around 0.56%. For 2011, there is considerable oil demand and oil price uncertainty, but still a very strong possibility that oil will trend higher. Economic growth may have been subdued late in 2010 and into early 2011, but should still support meaningful oil demand increases. Non-OPEC supply is likely to emerge only slightly higher so, with continued OPEC discipline, the foundations have been laid for an oil price rise – albeit falling well short of the improvement seen this year. It seems likely that the 2010 average OPEC basket price will have emerged around the US$77.00 per barrel (bbl) level, representing a year-on-year (y-o-y) gain of approximately 27%. Progress towards at least US$80 is seen as achievable in 2011.
Hong Kong’s real GDP is assumed by BMI to rise by 5.4% in 2010, with average annual growth of 3.6% forecast for 2010-2015. There is no upstream or refining segment, but international oil companies (IOCs) and Chinese companies are investing in import and distribution facilities. Oil consumption is forecast to increase by 2-3% per annum to 2015, implying demand of 335,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas demand is set to reach 3.6bcm by 2015, with all of the fuel imported.
Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Hong Kong oil consumption of 26.12%, with demand reaching 370,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Oil consumption growth slows to an assumed 2.0% per annum towards the end of the period. Gas demand growth of 79.08% provides an import requirement rising to 4.8bcm by 2020. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts, which provide regional and country-specific projections, can be found at the end of this report.
Hong Kong shares 13th place with South Korea in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) league table and is ranked equal 12th in the updated upstream Business Environment ratings, alongside Singapore. The poor showing reflects the absence of domestic hydrocarbons. The risk environment is much more attractive than for many Asian peers, but there are no opportunities for IOCs in the upstream segment. Hong Kong is ranked 12th, behind the Philippines, in BMI’s downstream Business Environment ratings, above only Malaysia, Taiwan and Papua New Guinea (PNG), reflecting its status as a very small energy market with few investment opportunities available. It beats its nearest rivals because of its low risk profile.
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