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Turkey Shipping Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Oct 2010, Pages: 103
Turkey Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, shipping associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Turkey's shipping industry.
In August the Privatisation Administration Board of Turkey extended the bidding deadline for the tender to privatise Iskenderun Port, reported World Bulletin. The deadline was moved to September 16 2010 from August 4 2010. The board said in May 2010 it would auction off the rights to manage the port for 36 years. The port caters to the south and south-east Anatolia Region and also serves transit traffic to Middle Eastern countries. The privatisation of Turkey's ports via long-term concessions has spurred the expansion of port facilities through capital investments and has therefore increased their throughput. According to a report by RedOrbit News, out of the 20 ports originally controlled by the state-owned Turkiye Cumhuriyeti Devlet Demiryollari (TCDD), five remain under state control.
As Turkey entered the fourth quarter of 2010 the local market environment continued to be quite strongly favourable for the ports and shipping sector. The political scene remained stable and democratic, despite some ongoing tensions between the AKP, the Islamist ruling party and the secularist army. The economic scene was marked by strong growth. Based on a stronger-than-expected performance by domestic consumers and a net foreign investment inflow, BMI has raised the 2010 GDP growth forecast to 6.3% (up from 4.7% earlier). They believe that the strength of the internal market, diversified industrial sectors, a healthy capital market, a pro-reform government and high long-term leverage potential all suggest Turkey will outperform its European emerging-market peers.
The downturn in European trade last year had a major impact on business at the Port of Ambarli (POA). According to the latest figures, general and liquid bulk cargoes fell by 22.4%. A recovery is now under way, but BMI expects that it will not be until 2013 that pre-2009 levels of business are restored. In 2010, they expect POA tonnage to grow by 15.5% to 3.63mn tonnes, followed by 14.5% growth in 2011. The number of boxes handled at Ambarli was also hard-hit by last year's recession. Box throughput contracted by 18.8%. Here, pre-2009 levels will be achieved again by 2011, indicating that the container recovery will be more rapid than the recovery for general cargo. In the meantime there will be a few years of double-digit growth. In 2010, they see total containers handled at the port rising by 12.4% to 2.064mn 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs).
In real terms, Turkey's total trade (exports plus imports) slumped by 10.3% last year, but will recover almost all that lost ground in 2010, with growth of 9.4%. Trade will expand by a further 8.1% in 2011. The average annual rate of growth over the next five years will be a healthy 7.8%. Rising living standards and a growing middle class will play their part in boosting import demand, which will grow by a medium-term average of 8.3% per annum, ahead of exports at 7.2% per annum. In nominal terms exports will rise 21.9% this year to US$173.5bn, while imports will grow 27.7% to US$190.9bn. Turkey will continue to run a balance of trade deficit for the rest of their medium term forecast period running to 2014.
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