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United States Defence and Security Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Oct 2010, Pages: 121
Business Monitor International's United States Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the United States' defence and security industry.
Serious questions are now being asked at the highest level about the sustainability of the US and Allied presence in Afghanistan. President Obama’s troop ‘surge’ is currently proving less effective than that of his predecessor in Iraq. He faces criticism from all sides: many politicians and commentators, and an increasing proportion of the public, argue that the troops should be brought home. On the other hand, some, particularly in military circles, suggest that the surge was insufficient. But Obama will surely be loath to send substantial new forces from an already stretched military.
The situation is one of uncertainty from all sides, but one fact is becoming increasingly clear: the US and its Allies, while making progress in some areas, are not close to defeating the Taliban, let alone leaving Afghanistan a stable and functioning country.
There are a number of options open to Obama and his allies, though none are particularly palatable. A renewed surge would be costly and unpopular, and risk admitting that current efforts are failing; withdrawal would widely be seen as a defeat for the Allies, and leave a strategically important country destabilised and risking a power vacuum.
Leaving the country entirely, even in nine months’ time, does not look a realistic option. Therefore the US may persevere with current troop levels but increase the level of discussions with local warlords, including the Taliban, striking deals to reduce the intensity of conflict. It is looking increasingly likely that the US will exit Afghanistan with its original mission very far from accomplished, and with potentially troubling consequences for its interests in the region. On the other hand, it will be able to concentrate resources on areas where there is a growing existential threat: Iran, North Korea, even Mexico, where drug-related crime and violence have risen significantly.
Clues to the US’s future priorities come partly from procurement. Substantial purchases of carrier-based aircraft indicates that the Navy still places a lot of importance on aircraft carriers, which increase a country’s ability to project power far overseas, as well as to respond to crises in areas where it has little ground force presence. China, increasingly seen as the US’s major long-term strategic rival, is expected to launch its first carrier around 2015, and the US, though it still has much greater military capacity, and particularly scope to intervene overseas, than the People’s Republic, is likely to be anxious to stay ahead of the game in keeping its carrier fleet well-equipped.
Given the straightened fiscal situation and fears that the military budget could get out of control, Defence Secretary Robert Gates has proposed a range of cost-saving measures. These aim to hold down budget growth without cutting into the armed forces. Most controversial of Gates’s proposals is to eliminate the Joint Forces Command in Virginia, which has been questioned by senior politicians. He, like Obama, faces a political fight and some tough choices.
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