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Indonesia Tourism Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Oct 2010, Pages: 48
Indonesia Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Indonesia's tourism industry.
Core Forecasts
Over 4mn tourists visited Indonesia over January-July 2010 period, which was a 13.49% increase yearon- year (y-o-y), according to figures from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). July’s 658,476 arrivals added to the 3.38mn visitors welcomed over the first half of 2010 and underlines BMI’s bullish stance towards Indonesian tourism. Hotel occupancy rates have also remained firm, hitting 54.41% in July 2010. In the last quarterly report, they made an upward revision to their estimates for 2010 tourism. Consequently, they will not be making any further changes to their forecasts this quarter. BMI believes that growth in overall tourist arrivals during the rest of 2010 should be supported by factors such as Garuda Indonesia’s reintroduction of direct flights between Amsterdam Airport Schiphol and Jakarta in June 2010.
In H110, the Ministry of Culture & Tourism increased its forecast for 2010 foreign tourist arrivals from Europe to a minimum of 1mn, a significant increase from the 700,000 originally targeted. With Garuda’s flights between Schiphol and Jakarta starting again in June, the Ministry anticipated that inbound tourism from the Netherlands (Indonesia was part of the Dutch Empire and it retains significant cultural links) will increase significantly, since people will be able to fly direct between the two countries rather than having to take connecting flights. The forecast extra 300,000 alone would amount to a rise of 4.7% on the total foreign tourist arrivals registered in 2009 (6.38mn). As such, BMI anticipates that total foreign tourist arrivals in 2010 will rise by 18.5% y-o-y to 7.56mn.
While BMI expects a deceleration in the growth of foreign tourist arrivals in 2011, due to the anticipated high base from 2010, they still forecast reasonably strong growth that year if, as planned, Garuda resumes direct flights in early 2011 between Jakarta, Rome, London and Frankfurt. They forecast foreign tourist arrivals to grow by 7.7% in 2011, taking total foreign tourist arrivals to 8.15mn.
Delay to Garuda IPO
In September 2010, the Jakarta Post reported that the long-awaited IPO of shares in national flag carrier Garuda Indonesia would likely be delayed until March 2011 while auditors continue their assessment of the company’s financial state. It had previously been hoped that an IPO could be carried out before the end of 2010. Garuda posted a y-o-y decline in H110 profits to IDR175bn, down from IDR400bn in H109, reported the Jakarta Post. For more information on Garuda Indonesia, please refer to the company prodile at the end of this report.
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