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United States Information Technology Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Oct 2010, Pages: 56
United States Information Technology Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, information technology associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the United States' information technology industry.
Market Overview - US spending on IT products and services is forecast to reach US$683bn by 2014.
US spending on IT products and services is forecast to grow to almost US$531bn in 2010 and reach nearly US$683bn by 2014. BMI has upwardly revised its forecast after US PC sales grew stongly in H110. After three quarters of decline as a result of the global economic crisis, a recovery in shipments growth that started in H209 gathered pace in H110 as businesses implemented hardware and systems upgrades that had been delayed from 2009.
This upgrade cycle should still have some way to run but businesses remain cautious due to concerns about the possibility of a faltering economic recovery. A major demand driver will be private and public sector organisations looking for help with to utilise efficiencies from cloud computing models such asSoftware-as-a-Service (SaaS) and Infrastucture-as-a-Service.
Other key market drivers are expected to include:
- Growing fixed and mobile broadband penetration.
- Product innovation such as tablet notebooks, e-readers and feature-rich netbooks.
- Technology innovation such as GPS and services.
- Business model innovations such as virtualisation.
- Economic recovery.
The recession may have had a lasting impact on the IT market by creating the conditions for the
popularity of low-cost netbooks and notebooks and encouraging consideration of new IT delivery models
such as SaaS. In light of these and other changes, major vendors have also adjusted their competitive
strategies.
Industry Developments - The government has reported on its 2009 calendar year IT spending.
In 2009, total IT spending including all federal IT investment came to US$74.2bn, up by 1.99% on the previous year's total of US$72.8bn. In 2010, budgeted federal IT spending is set to rise to US$78.4bn. The stimulus bill, which required the use of electronic healthcare records by doctors by 2015 is expected to be a major driver of investment in this area.
Competitive Landscape - The US PC competitive landscape is dominated by two large domestic vendors, Dell and HP, which together account for at least 50% of the US market.
In 2010, most PC vendors reported renewed growth as businesses proceeded with purchases delayed from 2009. Despite an overall fall in PC shipments in 2009, many vendors leveraged demand for notebooks and netbooks into continued growth. Meanwhile, the contest for top spot between HP and Dell continued. HP exemplified the recovery trend experienced by most vendors, with a 12% rise in revenues from its Americas region in Q310 to US$14.2bn.
In April 2010, Apple finally launched its long-awaited iPad and achieved worldwide sales of around 2mn
units within the first two months.
Rival vendors such as HP and Dell have all announced or shown their own tablet products, while smartphone makers Research In Motion (RIM) and Samsung are also expected to compete in this segment. HP did not comment rumours that it would be releasing a tablet based on Google's Android operating system.
Meanwhile, the government remains a key vendor target. In May 2010, HP achieved one of its most recent local market succeses with the win of a US$41.6mn contract from the US Department of Homeland Security. In September 2009, HP's EDS unit won a US$30mn contract from the US Department of the Treasury's Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to provide and maintain computing resources and mobility services.
Computer Sales - The US addressable market for PCs and accessories is estimated by BMI at US$126.4bn in 2010, with single-digit growth compared with 2009.
US PC sales grew stongly in H110 and BMI estimates that the market is on course for full-year total PC sales of 77mn unit. In Q110, sales were boosted by a revival of the business PC market, which is expected to gather pace in the second half of the year.
Notebooks are the fastest growing PC market segment and are estimated to have accounted for more than 60% of unit sales in 2009, while netbooks are estimated to account for about 15% of notebook sales. However, netbooks and notebooks face competition from other formats such as smartphones from Palm, RIM and Apple, as well as tablet notebooks.
Software - The US software market is estimated at US$151.3bn in 2010, with single-digit growth from 2009.
Software CAGR for 2010-2014 is projected at 7.4%, as the addressable market grows to be worth around US$201.5bn. There should be a boost in 2010 from systems upgrades deferred from 2009, when the economic crisis had an impact across sectors. A combination of enterprise objectives such as cost reduction and greater efficiency should combine to encourage the adoption of cloud services in 2010. Drivers of demand for enterprise software include increasing operational efficiency, coordinating global supply chains and modernising logistics and warehouse functions. More investment can be expected to be in utility software and serviced-oriented architectures rather than traditionally packaged PC software.
IT Services - The US IT services market is forecast at US$230.9bn in 2010, with a sharp deceleration in spending expected compared with 2006-2008.
IT services spending is expected to grow by 7.2% in 2010 after a sharp deceleration in 2009. Spending on
IT services is quite closely correlated with GDP growth, which is bad news in a recession.
One opportunity will be organisations looking for help with to utilise efficiencies from cloud computing
such as SaaS and IaaS, as organisations look to save money on IT investments. National and local
government is one vertical where strong interest in cloud services is being expressed.
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