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China Shipping Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Nov 2010, Pages: 106
The China Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, shipping associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on China's shipping industry.
At this stage in China's economic development, one interesting message for port operators seems to be 'go West!'. In early July, BMI noted that Maersk was investing in port development in Chongqing. Situated on the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, the Port of Cuntan is the largest development in the city of Chongqing, and is well placed to serve the needs of Chinese trade. Located close to the centre of mainland China, it is an ideal location from which to distribute goods to the landlocked north and west of the country. Since the construction of the Three Gorges Dam, the water level can reach levels high enough to accommodate vessels weighing up to 10,000 tonnes. Maersk has been running ships to the city of Chongqing since 2004, and has now signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Chongqing Port Logistics Group to undertake a joint investment in the development of the Cuntan Bonded Port Area. According to the MoU, Maersk will set up a terminal at the port, which will eventually handle around 20% of total throughput. Investment in the Port of Cuntan makes considerable sense, especially as Maersk is already running services there. Operating a terminal in a port in that it is already trading will enable the company to reduce its handling and cargo-stacking costs considerably.
China's massive economic machine is beginning to decelerate because of a combination of factors. Slowing property prices, stress in the banking system, weaker global demand for Chinese exports, the formal ending of the CNY/US$ peg, inflation and wage pressures all point to slower growth. There are also signs that the economy is rebalancing away from export-led growth to a model more strongly based on domestic demand. Political risk factors will focus on potential labour unrest and the likely reaction of the ruling Communist Party. After 11.9% GDP growth last year, we see the economy slowing in both 2010 (to 9.0%) and 2011 (to 7.6%).
The analyst is projecting an increase in volume at the Port of Shanghai (POS) in 2010, up by 16% in volume terms, after the 13.6% contraction during the slump last year. Going forward we believe growth will level off quite abruptly. At the Port of Ningbo Zhoushan (PONZ) we see this year's volume gaining by a very strong 27%. In terms of box traffic, the Port of Shanghai is expected to see 10.6% container handling growth while PONZ will see growth of 5.1%.
In real terms, we expect China's total trade (imports plus exports) to surge forward this year, following the sharp 13.5% fall in 2009. The recovery will see growth of 20.3% in 2010, more than making up for last year's setback. However, 2011 will see the brakes applied again, with trade growth reducing right down to only 2.5%, making for three very volatile years. BMI's medium-term forecast is for average annual real-term trade growth of 7.9%, almost on a par with GDP, something of a slowdown from the earlier part of this decade. In fact, we believe that behind these rather stop-go figures a fundamental realignment is taking place, with the driver of the Chinese economy shifting from exports to internal demand.
The main risk factor for our China ports and shipping forecasts lies on the downside, and is represented by a greater-than-expected 'double-dip' global economic slowdown in 2011, in the worst-case scenario this might be combined with the outbreak of a US-China trade war. Reciprocal trade sanctions between Washington and Beijing could lead to quite sharp reductions in bilateral trade volumes.
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