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Hungary Autos Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Aug 2010, Pages: 53
The Hungary Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Hungary's automotive industry.
New car registrations in Hungary fell 28% year-on-year (y-o-y) in June. However, the decrease is less severe than in other months, comparing with declines of over 50% y-o-y nearly every month between January 2009 and April 2010.
The falls can be attributed to the lack of a scrappage scheme in Hungary. Such incentives have helped auto industries in other European countries to recover.
The president of the Hungarian Vehicle Importers Association, Peter Erdelyi, expects 2010 sales figures to come in at least equal to 2009, The Budapest Times reported. However, Erdelyi offered the caveat that the economy would have to pick up and banks resume lending for this to happen. BMI takes a more pessimistic view, forecasting a 24.3% y-o-y drop in sales in 2010 to just over 63,657 units. Given the obstacles faced by Hungary's economy – which is dealing with its biggest challenges since its transition from communism in the early 1990s – BMI does not expect sales to achieve pre-crisis levels by the end of the forecast period.
On a more positive note, while the winding down of clunker plans will remove a key boost for exports, demand will eventually return as the global economy recovers. In an encouraging sign, Audi Hungaria's Gyor plant produced a total of 428,708 engines in Q110, with a 36% y-o-y rise in car production to 10,354 units, registering a 43% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in engine production – figures that are comparable to pre-crisis levels. Audi has focused extensively on cost reductions and increased productivity, which has yielded the group a strong net liquidity of EUR9.3bn leaving it much better placed than most of its regional counterparts at the end of this period of flux.
Meanwhile, in what BMI sees as part of the German parts suppliers long term strategy, Robert Bosch has announced plans to also invest EUR22mn (US$27.9mn) to set up a production unit at its existing facility in Miskolc, north east Hungary. The firm is reported to have invested HUF14bn (US$63.7mn) in Hungary last year, and with new investment still coming in BMI believes Hungary may become a major production base for Bosch in the CEE region. This announcement follows reports that this is part of a larger relocation of other plants to Hungary, namely the Welsh Miskin plant and an Australian testing facility. This would suggest that Hungary is becoming a viable long term option for parts manufacturers, who tend to follow larger CBU facilities. We believe its optimism for Hungary is not unfounded, however. Its Robert Bosch Energy and Body Systems units make starters, drive shafts and windshield washer systems, which together brought the company EUR389mn (US$495mn) in revenue last year, compared with EUR202mn
(US$256.8mn) in 2008.
BMI expects it will take time for production to recover – and the road ahead for manufacturers could be bumpy. Although we forecast a slight rise in vehicle production in 2010, it will not be until 2011 that a more resilient recovery is apparent. Thereafter growth should pick up, especially towards the end of the forecast period, and there is a growing trend of a slowing collapse. We anticipate production rising to 423,702 units by 2014, versus an estimated output of 272,127 units in 2009.
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