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Czech Republic Telecommunications Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Nov 2010, Pages: 93
The Czech Republic Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Czech Republic's telecommunications industry.
This quarter's update of BMI's Telecommunications Report on the Czech Republic sees us extend our forecasts for the country's fixed-line, mobile telephony and internet/broadband markets through to 2015. At the same time, we have sourced new YE09 data from the regulator regarding the fixed-line and broadband markets and these have also been factored into our expectations for the market over the next five years.
As noted in our previous report, there has been a significant push by the country's mobile network operators to improve their coverage with mobile broadband/3G networks and services, with the three largest operators all embarking on aggressive deployment schedules targeted at serving the majority of population centres by 2010. This has been accompanied by a raft of new tariffs and subscription plans aimed at different segments of the market and operators have been continually offering new handsets and devices in an attempt to get more internet users onto their networks. Telefónica O2 Czech Republic is the only operator to regularly disclose data relating to its mobile broadband offering, but progress as of mid-2010 appeared to have been less than dynamic. We expect better results to emerge by the end of the year.
We continue to hold to our relatively conservative estimate of 460,000 3G subscribers at the end of 2009, and estimate some 600,000 subscribers as of 2010. By the end of our forecast period in 2015, we predict that the number of 3G subscribers will have grown to more than 2.2mn, which would account for around 16% of the mobile market. Meanwhile, due to further disconnections by mobile operators of inactive customers, we have reined in our top-line mobile subscriber forecasts for 2010 and the years that follow. We now expect a y-o-y increase of 0.8% in 2010, with declining annual growth rates thereafter. By 2015, we expect the market to be supporting a little under 14.1mn subscribers in all. This would yield a penetration rate of 132.5%.
New data suggest that there were 2.430mn broadband subscribers at the end of 2009, rather higher than the 2.13mn we had previously reported. This translated into annual growth of 19.7%. For 2010, we believe that uptake rates will have been boosted by an improved performance by the incumbent as well as rollouts by alternative operators on the fixed-line side, as well as by increased take-up of mobile broadband services. We anticipate a 17.9% increase in 2010, taking the subscriber base to just under 2.87mn. By the end of the forecast period, in 2015, we expect there to be 4.13mn subscribers in all, a figure we may well revise upwards if mobile broadband really takes off.
By the end of 2009, there were 2.092mn fixed line connections in service, yielding a penetration rate of 20%. The new data are much lower than we had previously been led to believe and we have reined in our historical data and forecasts accordingly.
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