Serbia Autos Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, August 2010, Pages: 54
The Serbia Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Serbia's automotive industry.
In common with much of the world, Serbia was hit hard by the global financial crisis that began in 2008. As the European recovery gathers pace, the Serbian economy is likely to recover at a similar pace, especially given the influx of foreign investment into the nation's emerging auto industry. With deepening economic ties with the EU and the beginning of the path to EU membership, Serbia is expected to benefit from greatly expanded trade and investment. As a low-cost economy with improving access to the world's largest market, Serbia is well placed to exploit its position. This is especially true with regards the auto industry.
The Serbian state has focused on the development of a large auto industry as a core aspect of its industrial policy. By building on the foundations established by Serbia's formerly sizeable manufacturing sector and through increased investment into infrastructure, the Serbian government hopes to attract investment as other Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries become more costly locations for production. This policy has begun to reap dividends in 2010, with the announcement of large investments by foreign auto firms.
Car part firms have been viewing Serbia as a promising location for production – with South Korean and Italian firms leading the trend. For example, the South Korean firm Yusa is creating 1,400 jobs at an electrical components factory in Raca, while Italian firm Daytec is creating 400 jobs at a parts plant geared towards production for the growing Fiat plant at Kragujevac. But it is recent investment from Fiat, which is most promising. This joint venture between Fiat and the state-owned firm Zastava has already received hundreds of millions of euros in investment. Production has the potential to reach 300,000 units in 2011. Additionally, it was announced in late July that Fiat would produce two minivan models in Serbia instead of at plants in Northern
Italy. This controversial move would see another 190,000 units being produced by 2012 in a EUR1bn investment.
Despite the overwhelmingly export-orientated focus of the Serbian auto industry, the market for car purchases is growing in Serbia as the economy recovers from the negative 2.9% growth of 2009. The economy is predicted to grow 2.7% in 2010, growth is expected to accelerate to 4.2% in 2011. This economic growth will fuel booming car sales, which BMI expects to grow 29% in the period 2010-2014. This substantial growth provides credible opportunities for investment in auto sales in Serbia, in both the new and used sectors.
BMI expects Serbia to become an important centre of the CEE auto industry, though this process will not be simple. As current production issues at the Fiat-Zastava plant show, the industry has not quite begun to operate easily, with retooling difficulties and infrastructural problems inhibiting investment. A major boon to the industry will be the program of major motorway investment by the Serbian government, which has been taking place in recent years and will continue for some years to come. Despite these issues, the strong commitment of the Serbian government to developing the auto industry will make Serbia an increasingly attractive target for investment.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Serbia Autos Industry SWOT
Serbia Political SWOT
Serbia Economic SWOT
Serbia Business Environment SWOT
Regional Overview
BMI Stands By Domestic Demand Side View For Emerging Europe
Standing By The Domestic Demand Side Story
Business Environment Ratings
Table: Western Central And Eastern Europe Business Environment Ratings
Industry Forecast Scenario
Production And Sales
Table: Serbian Automotive Production
Table: Serbian Automotive Sales
Trade
Table: Serbian Trade
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
Table: Serbia – Economic Activity
Competitive Landscape
Zastava
Automotive Parts
Commercial Vehicle Market
Company Monitor
PSA Peugeot Citroën Regional Profile
Financial Woes
Focus On Faurecia
Merger Opportunity
Eye On Eastern Europe
Company Profiles
Zastava Automobile
Country Snapshot: Serbia Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2000-2001
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sources
-Zastava
-Automotive Parts
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