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Indonesia Telecommunications Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Nov 2010, Pages: 100
The Indonesia Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Indonesia's telecommunications industry.
Based on the latest figures released by Indonesian operators and BMI estimates, BMI has made revisions to our mobile subscribers and fixed-line forecasts while retaining the forecasts to the country’s internet and broadband subscriber growth, as well as operators’ ARPU.
Indonesia’s mobile subscriber net additions slowed down in Q210, with quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) growth at just 2.5%. This was significantly less than the average growth rate of 6.5% in the preceding four quarters. The industry is showing signs of saturation as we expect market penetration to reach 90.2% by the end of 2010 due to aggressive tariff reductions by mobile operators in order to achieve growth in subscribers. Nevertheless, with prepaid subscribers accounting for 91.1% of the total mobile subscribers as of June 2010, we still expect this dominance in our five-year forecasts, which also suggests opportunities for operators to migrate subscribers to higher value postpaid contracts.
Meanwhile, the number of fixed-lines continued to show upward potential based on the latest figures released by the ITU. We expect further opportunities from the potential merger between the CDMA arms of Telkom and Bakrie Telecom. The deal is reportedly in its final stages, but Indonesia’s business competition supervisory commission raised concerns over a possible monopoly. We believe that with the government’s support in the merger, a solution will be reached that will satisfy the commission’s concerns.
There were changes to our ARPU forecasts as operators’ ARPUs are generally on track to meet our expectations. However, mobile operators Indosat and Telkomsel are showing potential to halt the decline with their continued efforts to shift towards a balanced value based strategy and focus on higher value customers. Both operators posted increases in their postpaid ARPU for Q210.
Mobile operator Telkomsel selected Italian incumbent Telecom Italia in September 2010 through an international tender to implement its 2011-2015 Technology Plan. The five-year programme involves upgrading Telkomsel's network infrastructure along with its service platforms, customer care and computer systems, as well as assessing the impact on investments and costs. Telecom Italia managed to secure the tender after beating rival contenders France Telecom and Deutsche Telekom, who were bidding jointly with Sofrecom and DeTeCon, respectively.
Indonesia rose by one place to 10th position, even though there were no changes to the country’s individual score in BMI’s latest Business Environment Ratings for the Asia-Pacific region. Indonesia changed positions with Pakistan due to a decrease in Pakistan’s Industry Rewards score.
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