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Czech Republic Tourism Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Nov 2010, Pages: 55
The Czech Republic Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Czech Republic's tourism industry.
Tourism Overview:
There has been a turnaround in the growth of foreign tourist arrivals in the Czech hospitality sector, from -6.6% and -3.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q309 and Q409 respectively, to an average growth rate of+3.6% y-o-y during H110. Despite positive growth, the figures should be interpreted in the context of a very low base in H109, during which the number of foreign tourist arrivals fell by an average of 13% y-o-y.
Hospitality:
In Q210, the hospitality sector remained in a weak state but non-resident tourism showed further recovery. Combined foreign and domestic tourist overnight stays totalled 8.8mn in Q210, down by about 1% y-o-y. Although nights by domestic residents declined by over 5% y-o-y, foreign tourist nights were up by a relatively favourable 3.3% compared with Q209. The number of total guests in all accommodation establishments was largely unchanged y-o-y, at about 3.1mn. As in the previous quarter, the number of foreign guests rose (+4.4% y-o-y) but domestic guest numbers fell. For spa accommodation, total overnight stays were up by nearly 4% y-o-y, with foreign and resident tourist spa nights increasing around 3% and 4% y-o-y respectively. Of the top five source markets in the second quarter of 2010, the number of German guests declined slightly, guest arrivals from the UK were unchanged, and arrivals from Russia, Poland and the US increased by 22%, 3% and 15% y-o-y respectively.
Forecast Scenario:
Taking account of the number of foreign guests in the hospitality sector during H110, we have edged up our growth estimate marginally to 2.5% y-o-y for foreign tourist arrivals in 2010. We anticipate a slight acceleration in annual growth in 2011 to 4.1%. The background scenario is economic recovery in the Czech Republic’s main source markets. These include the eurozone, for which our revised growth prediction is for sluggish growth of 1.4% in 2010 and 2011, the UK, the US and Russia. However, the forecast strength of the koruna against the euro is likely to dampen growth in arrivals over the next few years. The koruna moved higher against the euro through the latter stages of July 2010, breaching CZK25.00/EUR for the first time since the global financial crisis in late-2008. We did not expect a significant strengthening of the currency in H210 but hold to our view that the koruna came in at CZK24.50/EUR at the end of 2010.
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