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Argentina Infrastructure Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Aug 2010, Pages: 63
The Argentina Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, infrastructure associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Argentina's infrastructure industry.
Following the announcement of the US$10bn Chinese credit agreement for Argentina's railways we have revisited BMI's forecasts for the country's construction industry value and priced in the anticipated impact of the loans. On a positive note for the industry, revised historical real growth for construction industry value indicates that the recession in 2009 was not as steep as initially estimated, which has also had a positive impact on our forecasts for growth.
- The US$10bn credit line from China for Argentina’s railways is going to be a key thrust behind growth and most likely will resurrect the plans for the country’s high speed railway, which only a few months earlier the government said was unable to finance. Of course, this will also drive industry value, which is forecasted to experience anaemic growth over 2010 .
- Real growth in Argentina’s construction industry value has been highly volatile since 2001 and new historic data do little to change that picture. They do, however, point to a better than estimated 2009 picture, with real growth in industry value contracting by 4.0%. We have revised down slightly our forecasts for industry value for 2010, to reflect our expectation of moderate growth.
- Railway projects that have been earmarked for funds include, inter alia, the rehabilitation of the Belgrano railway, the freight corridors in the north and centre of the country, as well as metros in Buenos Aires and Cordoba. The biggest hope, however, is for the revival of the US$2.9bn highspeed railway project, which was declared unviable only in June 2010 given the lack of funding.
The high-speed railway is a darling project of the government and so it would be a major coup to get it going again prior to the 2011 elections. As the 2011 presidential elections near, the number of misgivings over the government’s perceived election-focused spending and populist stance is increasing. Spanish road toll firm, Abertis epitomises the difficulties of the political situation. A delay in toll rate increases is putting pressure on the returns from Abertis’ operations in Argentina.
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