Russia Agribusiness Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, November 2010, Pages: 73
The Russia Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on Russia's agribusiness service.
BMI View: The Russian government is making considerable steps to increase the country's selfsufficiency for almost all agricultural goods. This includes rice, all grains and livestock. Although the country will suffer continued inefficient production, as well as the after effects of potentially the country's worst ever drought, the government maintains its desire for self-sufficiency in poultry and the world's largest wheat exporter. However, much of this production growth will need to come from government initiatives, as Russia's declining population and existing high consumption rates in dairy and grains will limit consumption growth over the medium term.
Key Trends
- Corn consumption growth to 2015: 49% to 6.6mn tonnes. Demand for growth will almost exclusively be fuelled by production in the domestic pork and poultry sectors, which the government is keen on expanding for self-sufficiency purposes.
- Rice production growth to 2014/15: 41% to 857,000 tonnes. This growth will largely come from an increase in area planted as the government continues trying to achieve self-sufficiency.
- Dairy consumption growth to 2015: 1% to 12mn tonnes. Milk consumption in Russia is fairly well-established and with the decreasing population little direct consumption growth should occur.
- 2010 Real GDP Growth: 4.1% (up from -7.9% in 2009; predicted to average 4.3% from 2010 until 2015).
- Food Price Inflation: 8.7% year-on-year in September 2010 (down from 9.9% y-o-y in July 2009).
Industry Developments
On January 30 2010, President Medvedev signed the 'Food Security Doctrine', aimed at ensuring Russia reaches 85% self-sufficiency in meat and poultry by 2020 and is predicated on significant production growth over the long term. However, one of the significant downside production risks is rising livestock feed prices, particularly corn and soybeans. Since Russia does not grow a significant surplus of either good, it is vulnerable to global price increases, particularly if it must import due to bad harvests. As Russia grapples with what is now considered the worst drought on record, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin announced that the country's wheat export ban, which came into effect on August 15, could last well beyond the initial December 2010 expiry date. While we recognise the significant difficulties the weather has created for Russian production, the government is arguably damaging the sector further by cancelling contracts. By negating deals that are already in place because of the recent ban, Russia risks losing partners to a multitude of other wheat exporters, including Australia, Canada, the EU and Argentina.
There appears to be a consensus that plantings for Russia's winter wheat crop will be about 15mn hectares in 2011/12. The 15mn hectares would represent a decrease from an 18mn hectare planting average for the winter crop over the last decade. The reason for the potential decrease is that farmers are worried about ground conditions, as the soil in many growing regions is still relatively infertile. Russian farmers could try to compensate for lower winter wheat plantings by increasing spring wheat plantings. However, yields in the spring crop are roughly 17% lower than the winter crop, which has ultimately led us to forecast only a 13% rebound in wheat production to 60mn tonnes in 2011/12.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Industry Forecast
Grains - Agribusiness
Table: Russia Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Russia Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Russia barley production, consumption & trade
Table: Russia wheat production, consumption & trade
Table: Russia Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Russia Barley Production, Consumption & Trade
Rice
Table: Russia Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Russia Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
Dairy
Table: Russia Milk Production & Consumption
Table: Russia Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Russia Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Russia Milk Production & Consumption
Table: Russia Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Russia Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
Livestock
Table: Russia Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Russia Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Russia Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Russia Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
Table:Russia Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Russia Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
Competitive Landscape
Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders
Table: Agribusiness Suppliers
Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers
Commodity Price Analysis
Softs Update
Cocoa
Coffee
Milk
Sugar
Grains Update
Corn
Rice
Soybean
Wheat
Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Food
Total Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts
Mass Grocery Retail
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: MGR Value Sales By Format -- Historical Data & Forecasts
Trade
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Trade Indicators (US$mn) -- Historical Data & Forecasts
Macroeconomic Analysis
Company Profile - Wimm-Bill-Dann
Company Overview
Strategy
Russian Market Tightening Up
Milk Price And Demographic Challenges
Company Data
Industry Trend Analysis
Big Two Retailers Among World's Fastest Growing
Mass Grocery Retail
Comparing X5 And Magnit
Table: Russia's Top Ten Mass Grocery Retailers
Global Food & Drink View
Core Views
BMI Food & Drink Core Views
BMI Forecast Modelling
- Wimm-Bill-Dann
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