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Australia Freight Transport Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Nov 2010, Pages: 33
The Australia Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, freight transportation associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Australia's freight transportation industry.
Despite the global economic downturn, both China and India are still battling for access to the world's natural resources and are willing to make huge investments to develop the infrastructure of Australia. However, the scrapping of major China-Australia container shipping services does not bode well for the state of the Australian economy. BMI's core view that mining companies will seek to gain ownership of freight networks such as railway lines and ports to complement their business operations and ensure their supply chain was reinforced by the pledge of BHP Billiton and Hancock Coal to invest in new coal terminals at Australia's Abbot Point.
Air cargo which was badly affected by the economic downturn is still immersed in the scandal of price fixing which masked inefficiency in the industry. Polar Air Cargo pleaded guilty in September to fix airfreight charges, which may well start off another round of court cases. Qantas is seeking to make its business more efficient to maintain its contract with Australia Post. Virgin Atlantic Cargo started to recover from the losses it suffered at the height of the economic crisis in 2009.
Rail is marked by new projects to save major mining operations and the first moves in the privatisation of the state owned railways. Some of the increased freight will clearly travel by road and there are calls to make the roads safer.
BMI is forecasting a growth of 4.9% in total trade in real terms for 2010. Over the rest of the forecast period (2010-2014), BMI expects that Australia's total trade will increase by a yearly average of just 1.87%.
Australia's air freight sector is forecast to post a year on year (y-o-y) increase of 4.3% in 2010, this is a recovery on 2009 when cargo volumes carried by air fall by an estimated -1.82%. Growth in throughput at Australia’s ports in 2010 is expected to be between 2.5% and 4% in 2010 but this will fall back over the forecast period after the initial recovery spurt subsides. BMI predicts a growth of 6.02% for rail freight in FY10, after an estimated annual fall of -0.64% in FY09. This will again fall off to a CAGR of 2% over the forecast period. Road freight which is most flexible to change is expected to grow 6.7% in tonnes carried in 2010 and is expected to experience a CAGR of 2.3% over the forecast period.
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