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Chile Autos Report 2011
Business Monitor International, Nov 2010, Pages: 42
Chile Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Chile's automotive industry.
BMI has adjusted its five-year forecast for new car sales in Chile to reflect the recovery in consumer and business demand in the wake of the global financial crisis that coincided with the reconstruction efforts following February's earthquake. Following a record year for sales in 2010, we expect the Chilean economy to slow to growth of 4.5% y-o-y in 2011 and 3.2% in 2012. This, in turn, will translate into vehicle sales growth averaging 8% y-o-y between 2011 and 2015, taking market sales to just under 415,000 units by the end of the forecast period.
Helped also by rising demand in the mining sector – one of the pillars of the country's economy – businesses purchased a total 173,514 units in the first eight months of this year, already surpassing the total number of units sold in 2009. Meanwhile, we expect import demand to remain equally impressive over the medium term. In particular, we expect to see a marked uptick in the demand for imported capital goods as Chile attempts to rebuild production capacity that was lost following the earthquake.
Further support to sales growth in the short and medium term will come from the Chilean government’s investment in overhauling the road transport system. Volvo has become the second European carmaker to bag an order for 297 buses from Chile, after Daimler Buses secured an order for 1,000 Mercedes-Benz bus chassis in October 2009.
Despite the relatively small size of its auto market, BMI points out that Chile is one of the most promising markets for luxury vehicles in the region.
According to estimates from the National Automotive Association of Chile (ANAC), unlike most markets, Chilean consumers are tending to opt for luxury cars over economy models. The tendency can be seen in the declining market share of vehicles valued at less than CLP6mn (US$12,000), while the market share of luxury vehicles – valued at more than CLP20mn (US$40,000) – increases. Accordingly, UK luxury carmaker Aston Martin made a foray into the Latin American auto market, by opening an exclusive dealership in the Chilean capital, Santiago, in April 2010.
Chile’s main attraction lies in its relatively mature market and the well-developed infrastructure network, which ranks it in the fifth position in BMI’s Industry Risk-Rewards Ratings. However, in view of the absence of a strong vehicle production arm, we see little prospect of it overtaking the regional leaders.
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