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Indonesia Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Nov 2010, Pages: 121
The Indonesia Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Indonesia's oil and gas industry.
The latest Indonesia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 4.96% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 10.35% of supply. Regional oil use of 21.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 will reach an estimated 27.11mn b/d in 2010, then rises to around 30.64mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was around 8.35mn b/d in 2001, and will average an estimated 8.91mn b/d in 2010. It is set to decrease slightly to 8.89mn b/d by 2015. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was importing an average of 13.07mn b/d. This total will have risen to an estimated 18.20mn b/d in 2010, and is forecast to reach 21.75mn b/d by 2015. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2015 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region is expected to have consumed 489bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 633bcm is targeted for 2015. Production of an estimated 412bcm in 2010 should reach 548bcm in 2015, implying net imports rising from around 77bcm to 84bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Indonesia’s share of gas consumption in 2010 is expected to have been 7.80%, while its share of production is put at 18.45%. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 7.58%, with the country accounting for 14.60% of supply.
For 2011, there is considerable oil demand and oil price uncertainty, but still a very strong possibility that oil will trend higher. Economic growth may have been subdued late in 2010 and into early 2011, but should still support meaningful oil demand increases. Non-OPEC supply is likely to emerge only slightly higher so, with continued OPEC discipline, the foundations have been laid for an oil price rise – albeit falling well short of the improvement seen this year. It seems likely that the 2010 average OPEC basket price will have emerged around the US$77.00 per barrel (bbl) level, representing a year-on-year (y-o-y) gain of approximately 27%. Progress towards at least US$80 is seen as achievable in 2011.
BMI assumes that Indonesian real GDP growth hit 5.2% in 2010. We foresee average annual growth of 5.8% in 2010-2015. Efforts are being made by the Indonesian authorities to encourage investment in new oil and gas supply, in order to stem the decline in production. Numerous international oil companies (IOCs) work in partnership with national oil company Pertamina and the state. We are estimating oil and gas liquids production of no more than 920,000b/d by 2015, although the country is expected to have pumped 1.03mn b/d in 2010. Consumption is forecast to increase by up to 2.5% per annum to 2015. Our estimates imply demand of 1.52mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be approximately 601,000b/d by 2015. Gas production, rising to an estimated 80bcm by 2015, should provide end-period export potential of 32bcm, with supply risk on the downside.
Between 2010 and 2020 we are forecasting a reduction in Indonesian oil production of 23.79%, with crude volumes falling steadily to 785,000b/d in 2020. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 23.10%, with growth slowing to an assumed 2.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 1.68mn b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 76bcm in 2010 to a peak of 90bcm by 2017-20. With demand growth of 68.32%, this provides an export capability peaking at 43.6bcm in 2012, before falling to 25.9bcm by 2020, largely in the form of LNG. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts, which provide regional and country-specific projections, can be found later in this report.
Indonesia is ranked equal seventh, alongside Japan, in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) league table. This reflects its share of eighth place with China in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment ratings, with a relatively strong resource position offset by poor output growth prospects, a deteriorating reserves-to-production ratio (RPR) and extensive state involvement. The country sits three points ahead of Thailand, with some chance of a change in position during the coming quarters. Indonesia ranks equal sixth, alongside Australia, in BMI’s downstream Business Environment ratings, reflecting its low level of retail site intensity, limited refinery capacity expansion plans and modest oil and gas demand growth outlook. It is just ahead of Thailand, and may struggle to defend its position over the longer term.
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