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Slovenia Retail Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Nov 2010, Pages: 51
Slovenia Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Slovenia's retail industry.
The Q111 BMI Slovenia Retail report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow from a projected EUR16.92bn (US$24.87bn) in 2011 to EUR19.69bn (US$28.95bn) by 2014, an increase of more than 16% in local currency terms. Rising levels of disposable income and the continued development of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast growth in Slovenian retail sales. Slovenia’s nominal GDP is predicted to be US$51.79bn in 2011, with growth of 2.5% expected for the year, up from 1.8% in 2010. Average annual GDP growth of 2.9% is forecast by BMI between 2011 and 2014. With the population expected to remain static, at 2.1mn, over the period, consumer spending per capita is forecast to rise from US$13,579 in 2011 to US$14,794 by 2014.
The size of the urban population in Slovenia is unusually small, which partly reflects the absence of large cities resulting from the mountainous terrain. Even in the capital city Ljubljana there are fewer than 300,000 residents. The average age in the country, at 41 years, is also high compared with other European countries. Both of these factors work against retailers. However, unemployment, which rose to an estimated 10.0% in 2010, looks set to trend lower from 2011, ending the forecast period at 7.0%. In 2005, almost 71% of the Slovenian population was described by the UN as economically active, but with just 36.6% in the 20-44 age range. Just over half of the Slovenian population, 50.8%, was classified by the UN as urban. By 2015, the urban population is forecast to fall to 47.4%, with only 32.9% aged 20- 44. By this time, 68.4% of the population is expected to be economically active.
Using BMI Food & Drink data, the authors identify a food and drink market share in 2011 of 19.3% of total retail sales. This is forecast to decline to 16.3% by 2014 as the non-food sector matures.
Over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales are predicted to increase from US$0.058bn in 2011 to US$0.066bn by 2014, a rise of nearly 12%. The relatively low cost of OTC medicines should be the key growth driver, as the sector increases its market share at the expense of the prescription drugs market. In the longer run, generational change and better visibility of OTC products will help the self-medication sector develop.
Automotive sales are expected to increase only marginally, by 0.1%, to US$1.40bn over the same period. Slovenia’s autos sector has been feeling the effects of the domestic and European recession, and BMI does not see much opportunity for the market to boost its new car stock for at least the next four or five years.
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