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Turkey Retail Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Nov 2010, Pages: 54
Turkey Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Turkey's retail industry.
BMI’s Q111 Turkey Retail Report predicts that the country’s retail sales will grow by nearly 14% by 2014, from TRY286.39bn (US$219.89bn) in 2011 to TRY324.96bn (US$249.51bn). Underlying economic growth; an expanding population, especially in urban areas; rising levels of disposable income; and the continued development of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast growth in Turkish retail sales, which should expand an average 4.6% per year throughout the forecast period.
Turkey’s nominal GDP is predicted to be US$883.59bn in 2011, with growth of 4.7% expected, somewhat down on 2010’s 6.3%. Average annual GDP growth of 5.3% is predicted by BMI between 2011 and 2014. With the population increasing from 76.6mn in 2011 to an estimated 79.1mn by 2014, GDP per capita is forecast to grow by nearly 60% to US$18,375 by the end of the period. The BMI forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$8,188 in 2011 to US$12,948 by 2014. Turkey has a large, growing and young population. Each year, 750,000 young people join the workforce and, with an increasing level of urbanisation, many are abandoning the agricultural sector in order to seek better paid work in other areas. Nevertheless, unemployment is a problem, reaching an estimated 12.0% by the end of 2010.
BMI forecast a drop to 10.0% in 2011, and to 8.0% by the end of the forecast period. In 2005, 65.8% of the Turkish population was described by the UN as economically active, with 44.1% in the 20-44 age range, which is important for retail sales. Just over two-thirds of the population was classified by the UN as urban (67.3%). By 2015, the urban population is forecast to have reached almost 72%, with 43.2% in the 20-44 age band, and 69.1% of the population is expected to be active. BMI food consumption data suggest that the food retail segment will have a market share of 23.9% in 2011. The sub-sector is forecast to be worth US$52.63bn in 2011, and sales are expected to grow by more than 60% to US$84.51bn by 2014.
BMI forecasts suggest an increase in the retail market share of food to 33.9% by 2014. Mass grocery retail (MGR) sales are forecast to be US$20.0bn in 2011 and to grow much faster than overall food sales throughout the forecast period, by nearly 72%, to US$34.37bn by 2014. Turkey’s MGR sector is far from saturated, with room remaining in urban centres and secondary cities, as demand from a young, growing and increasingly affluent population increases. BMI forecasts that MGR’s share of the overall food market will rise from 38.1% in 2011 to 40.7% by the end of the review period.
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