Turkey Retail Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, November 2010, Pages: 54
Turkey Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Turkey's retail industry.
BMI’s Q111 Turkey Retail Report predicts that the country’s retail sales will grow by nearly 14% by 2014, from TRY286.39bn (US$219.89bn) in 2011 to TRY324.96bn (US$249.51bn). Underlying economic growth; an expanding population, especially in urban areas; rising levels of disposable income; and the continued development of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast growth in Turkish retail sales, which should expand an average 4.6% per year throughout the forecast period.
Turkey’s nominal GDP is predicted to be US$883.59bn in 2011, with growth of 4.7% expected, somewhat down on 2010’s 6.3%. Average annual GDP growth of 5.3% is predicted by BMI between 2011 and 2014. With the population increasing from 76.6mn in 2011 to an estimated 79.1mn by 2014, GDP per capita is forecast to grow by nearly 60% to US$18,375 by the end of the period. The BMI forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$8,188 in 2011 to US$12,948 by 2014. Turkey has a large, growing and young population. Each year, 750,000 young people join the workforce and, with an increasing level of urbanisation, many are abandoning the agricultural sector in order to seek better paid work in other areas. Nevertheless, unemployment is a problem, reaching an estimated 12.0% by the end of 2010.
BMI forecast a drop to 10.0% in 2011, and to 8.0% by the end of the forecast period. In 2005, 65.8% of the Turkish population was described by the UN as economically active, with 44.1% in the 20-44 age range, which is important for retail sales. Just over two-thirds of the population was classified by the UN as urban (67.3%). By 2015, the urban population is forecast to have reached almost 72%, with 43.2% in the 20-44 age band, and 69.1% of the population is expected to be active. BMI food consumption data suggest that the food retail segment will have a market share of 23.9% in 2011. The sub-sector is forecast to be worth US$52.63bn in 2011, and sales are expected to grow by more than 60% to US$84.51bn by 2014.
BMI forecasts suggest an increase in the retail market share of food to 33.9% by 2014. Mass grocery retail (MGR) sales are forecast to be US$20.0bn in 2011 and to grow much faster than overall food sales throughout the forecast period, by nearly 72%, to US$34.37bn by 2014. Turkey’s MGR sector is far from saturated, with room remaining in urban centres and secondary cities, as demand from a young, growing and increasingly affluent population increases. BMI forecasts that MGR’s share of the overall food market will rise from 38.1% in 2011 to 40.7% by the end of the review period.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Turkey Retail Business Environment SWOT
Turkey Political SWOT
Turkey Economic SWOT
Business Environment Outlook
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Business Environment Ratings
Turkey’s Retail Rating
Limits Of Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Market Overview
Current Trends
Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Key Retail Indicators, 2007-2014
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segments, 2011f
Organised Retail
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Turkey Economic Activity, 2007-2014
Regional Retail Outlook
Table: Regional Retail Trends, 2007-2014
Table: Regional Retail Sales By % Share, 2007-2014
Regional Retail Trends
Mass Grocery Retail
Turkey Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Table: Structure Of Turkey's MGR Market – Sales Value By Format (TRYbn)
Table: Structure Of Turkey's MGR Market – Sales Value By Format (US$bn)
Table: Value Of Sales Per Outlet, 2008
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: MGR Sales By Format, 2005-2014
Consumer Electronics
Turkey Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
Market Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2007-2014 (US$mn)
Industry Developments
Automotives
Turkey Autos Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Autos Production, 2006-2014
Table: Autos Sales, 2006-2014
Table: Car Ownership Rates, 2005-2014
Industry Developments
Country Snapshot: Turkey Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sources
Product Samples
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