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Philippines Shipping Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Nov 2010, Pages: 94
Philippines Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, shipping associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Philippines' shipping industry.
Throughput at the Philippines' main container facility, the Manila International Container Terminal (MICT) is on course to stage a full recovery following 2009's downturn in terms of both total tonnage and box throughput, with BMI predicting an increase year-on-year (y-o-y) of 16.7% and 15.9% respectively. Latest year to date figures (H1) show that total tonnage at MICT has reached 9.2mn tonnes and that container volumes through the port for the first six months stand at 809,160TEU, which indicates that the port's throughput is on course to reach BMI’s throughput targets for 2010. This offers a sound base for BMI's forecasts in port throughput at MICT for 2011 and for the rest of the medium term. They single out the potential of intra-Asia trade as the major upside for Philippines shipping and throughput at the nation's ports.
Headline Industry Data
- 2011 MICT tonnage throughput forecast 2.5% following a projected growth of 16.7% in 2010.
- 2011 MICT container throughput forecast 2.66% following a projected growth of 15.9% in 2010
- 2011 total trade forecast 2.7%
Key Industry Trend
Port Expansion Ramped Up- Philippines To Benefit From Intra-Asia Trade Growth -- Expansion of nation's ports being spearheaded by Philippines based International Container Terminal Services Inc (ICTSI). Ports where investment is currently being channelled are MICT and Davao. Expansion of port facilities will help country cater for projected growth in throughput at Philippine's ports, the country's trade is set to benefit from increased intra-Asia trade with ASEAN of which the Philippines is a member operating free trade agreements (FTAs) with both China and India.
Risks To Outlook
Mid to long-term Intra-Asia trade growth offers upside risk to BMI’s throughput at the Philippine ports. There is, however, a caveat, in that the Philippines will only benefit if it expands and upgrades its ports otherwise trade is likely to pass it by. They highlight this, as in comparison to its ASEAN peers the Philippines port infrastructure scores low on the Global Economic Forum 2010's Competitiveness Ratings, ranked at 112, this is compared to Singapore's port infrastructure which is number one, Indonesia and Vietnam's ports are ranked at 99 and 95 respectively.
While in the long term ASEAN's FTA with China will be the stimulus to trade growth in intra-Asia in the short term (2011) BMI expects China's demand for imports to slip, this will negatively affect the Philippines as China is the country's main export partner, BMI's Country Risk team has already factored in this downside risk to its trade forecasts for the Philippines. In 2011, they project that the country's total trade will grow by just 2.7% y-o-y, a slowdown compared to the forecast growth of 16.95% in 2010. This has fed through into our predictions for Philippine port throughput in 2011, with BMI's Shipping desk forecasting container volumes at MICT to grow by just 2.66% compared to the 15.87% that they project for 2010.
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