Venezuela Shipping Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, November 2010, Pages: 95
Venezuela Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, shipping associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Venezuela's shipping industry.
A Chinese firm has pledged to invest US$600mn in the construction of a new container terminal at the beleaguered Puerto Cabello, Venezuela's major port, which is located on the country's Caribbean coast. During a televised ceremony at the beginning of September 2010, China Harbor Engineering Company (CHEC), represented by its general manager, Yu Huixian, signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Venezuelan minister of transport and communications, Francisco Garces.
The work undertaken will include dredging work and the construction of berths to enable the port to accommodate Post-Panamax vessels. BMI notes that Puerto Cabello has suffered a monumental decline since being nationalised in March 2009, when Venezuela's National Assembly voted to hand over control of the country's transport links, which were previously under state level control, to federal authorities. The decision saw three ports -- Puerto Cabello, Maracaibo and Porlamar -- placed under the control of the federal government. BMI believes that the port is in real need of some constructive investment and foreign expertise. Given CHEC's experience and expertise (it has 31 overseas branches and is the secondlargest dredging company in the world), BMI believes that it should be capable of fixing many of the efficiency and management problems of Puerto Cabello.
Going into 2011 the operating environment for the Venezuelan ports and shipping sector remained difficult. The opposition made important gains in the September 2010 Congressional elections, with the government of president Hugo Chávez losing its two-thirds majority. While this may open up the race for the 2012 presidential elections BMI do not believe it will necessarily cause Chávez to rein in his marketunfriendly economic policies such as manipulation of currency rates and expropriations. Investment from political allies such as Russia, Iran, and China will be a positive, but the economy as a whole will remain distorted. BMI is estimating a GDP contraction of 3.8% in 2010, the second consecutive year of recession. They project a recovery in 2011 with 3.2% growth, but put average annual growth in the years to 2014 at a disappointing 2.9%.
BMI is projecting another fall in volume at the Port of Puerto Cabello (POPC) in 2010, down by 10.8% to 3.478mn tonnes, after the massive 58.9% contraction during 2009. They believe 2011 will see a partial rebound with a gain of 4.7% to 3.642mn tonnes. POPC was also estimated to see a 1.7% container handling contraction to 776,940 TEUs in 2010, in addition to the 2.4% fall experienced in 2009. BMI see a weak 2.2% recovery in 2011 to 794,294 TEUs. At the Port of La Guaira (POLG) they see 2010's tonnage gaining by 10.3% to 0.569mn tonnes. In 2011 La Guaira will see expansion of 3.0% to 0.586mn tonnes. POLG also saw an estimated fall of 3.4% to 364,086 TEUs in 2010, with a predicted 4.5% recovery in 2011 to 380,325 TEUs.
In real terms, BMI expect Venezuela's total trade (imports + exports) to grow by 3.4% in 2011 after a 15.0% contraction in 2010, which was the second year of recession. The main driver of the modest recovery in 2011 will be exports, up by 6.0%, with imports much flatter, up by only 1.5%. Low domestic demand and foreign currency rationing will continue to restrain real import levels. In nominal terms, 2011's imports will be US$86.36bn, while exports push up to US$108.5bn on the back of greater oil revenues. BMI see Venezuela maintaining its annual trade surplus for the foreseeable future.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Venezuela Shipping SWOT
Global Overview
Container Shipping Overview
Dry Bulk Shipping Overview
Liquid Bulk Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Market Overview
Port of Puerto Cabello
Overview
Terminals, Storage And Equipment
Expansions And Developments
Multi-Modal Links
Port of La Guaira
Overview
Terminals, Storage And Equipment
Table: Details Of Cargo Berths
Expansions And Developments
Multi-Modal Links
Industry Forecast
Table: Major Port Data
Table: Trade Overview
Table: Key Trade Indicators
Table: Main Import Partners
Table: Main Export Partners
Company Profiles
AP MØLLER-MAERSK
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
CMA CGM
Neptune Orient Lines (& APL)
Hapag-Lloyd
Evergreen Line
China Ocean Shipping (Group) Company (COSCO)
CSAV Shipping
China Shipping (CSCL)
Hanjin Shipping
Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL)
Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NYK)
- AP MØLLER-MAERSK
- Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
- CMA CGM
- Neptune Orient Lines (& APL)
- Hapag-Lloyd
- Evergreen Line
- China Ocean Shipping (Group) Company (COSCO)
- CSAV Shipping
- China Shipping (CSCL)
- Hanjin Shipping
- Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL)
- Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NYK)
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