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Serbia Food and Drink Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Nov 2010, Pages: 88
Business Monitor International's Serbia Food and Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, food and drink associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Serbia's food and drink industry.
Serbia remains firmly in the bottom half of our Q111 Business Environment Ratings (BER) matrix for the 15 markets of Emerging Europe. While high levels of inflation, resulting from imported interest rate hikes and poor harvest in key grain producing countries, will lead to absolute local currency increase in food consumption values, consumers will increasingly seek to economise with regard to their discretionary purchases. The weak dinar will also discourage premiumisation, as the coming year looks set to remain challenging for domestic food and drinks and mass grocery retail (MGR) values. Nonetheless, foreign direct investment (FDI) into local manufacturing industries is expected to continue, taking advantage of the weak local tender, low-cost production base, and Serbia’s gradual progress towards membership of the European Union (EU).
Headline Industry Data (local currency) ?? 2010 per capita food consumption: +5.65%; forecast to 2015: +16.42%
- 2010 alcoholic drinks sales: +3.25%; forecast to 2015: +14.97%
- 2010 soft drinks sales: +4.13%; forecast to 2015: +1.42%
- 2010 mass grocery retail sales: +4.99%; forecast to 2015: +31.08%
Key Company Trends
Longer-Term Potential Not Enough for Some Companies: Serbia represents an attractive manufacturing base, due to low production costs and abundant labourforce. However, the shorter-term outlook is less promising, which is why some of the companies are looking to extract themselves from the country. For examle, the private equity company Salford Capital is aiming to sell its positions in the Balkans within the next two years, expecting that the Serbian market will remain challenging during this time. The firm was planning to attract interest from some of the world's largest food and drink companies, including Danone and Nestlé, the former of which had previously been linked with two of Salford’s local dairies.
Key Risks to Outlook
Export-Led Growth Vulnerable to Protracted Recovery in Eurozone: levels of foreign direct investment (FDI) fell by 138% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2009, reaching only EUR542mn for the first eight months of 2010. Nevertheless, FDI inflows actually targeted export-focused manufacturing industries, taking advantage of the weak dinar and the low-cost production base. We expect this trend to continue in the coming years, with Serbia’s re-integration into the European community underpinning the country’s potential as a source of exports. However, much will also be influenced by the recovery of the eurozone as the key destination of for value-added Serbia-manufactured products.
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