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Slovenia Food and Drink Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Nov 2010, Pages: 84
Business Monitor International's Slovenia Food and Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, food and drink associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Slovenia's food and drink industry.
The consumer outlook in Slovenia will remain subdued in the short to medium term, with the trend of premiumisation in the country’s relatively mature food and drink market put on hold, due to the impact of the wider economic environment in the country. Growth in private consumption throughout H110 has been flat, and we expect this to continue throughout the year. We have, indeed, revised down our Slovenian growth forecast for 2010 to just 1.8% on the back of persisting weak domestic demand data. Concomitantly, we now have weaker expectation for domestic demand growth, with private consumption forecast to expand by only 0.5%. The situation will ease in the medium to longer term, but we still expect low single-digit annual growth for the country’s food consumption values through to 2015, especially as the discount segment gains prominence within the wider mass grocery retail (MGR) industry. Headline Industry Data (local currency)
- 2010 per capita food consumption: -0.54%; forecast to 2015: +8.09%
- 2010 alcoholic drinks sales: -1.01%; forecast to 2015: +21.42%
- 2010 soft drinks sales: +0.88%; forecast to 2015: +11.84%
- 2010 mass grocery retail sales: +1.61%; forecast to 2015: +27.50%
Key Company Trends
Mercator Continues Expanding throughout Markets of Former Yugoslavia: Leading Slovenian MGR operator Mercator continues to expand its regional presence, in a bid to reduce its reliance on the challenging Slovenian market. To this end, in July 2010, Mercator moved to buy a 77-strong chain of supermarkets in Montenegro, which are owned by local player Pantomarket d.o.o. The transaction also covers the Plus Commerce d.o.o. business. Similarly, on course to meet its year-end market share target of 10% in Serbia, Mercator entered into a strategic agreement with domestic retailer Coka in August 2010. The deal is expected to increase Mercator's market share to 9%. Alongside Croatia, Serbia is Mercator's largest non-Slovenian market in terms of its market share. As such, it is expected that Mercator will continue to invest in expansion in the country over the coming years.
Key Risks to Outlook
The Strengthening Euro – The euro forecast is looking more optimistic than previously. In fact, we have revised our euro forecasts upwards for 2010 and 2011, and modestly for 2012. This should relieve some of the pressure on the consumer’s pocket and allow for purchasing of therefore relatively speaking cheaper imported goods. However, the strong euro will also disadvantage exports from Slovenia, which will put pressure on the regional expansion of leading domestic food and beverages players.
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