|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Vietnam Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Nov 2010, Pages: 107
Business Monitor International's Vietnam Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Vietnam's oil and gas industry.
The latest Vietnam Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.59% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 4.11% of supply. Regional oil use of 21.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 will reach an estimated 27.11mn b/d in 2010, then rises to around 30.64mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was around 8.35mn b/d in 2001, and will average an estimated 8.91mn b/d in 2010. It is set to decrease slightly to 8.89mn b/d by 2015. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was importing an average of 13.07mn b/d. This total will rise to an estimated 18.20mn b/d in 2010, and is forecast to reach 21.75mn b/d by 2015. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2015 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region is expected to consume 489bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 633bcm is targeted for 2015. Production of an estimated 412bcm in 2010 should reach 548bcm in 2015, implying net imports rising from around 77bcm to 84bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Vietnam’s estimated share of gas consumption in 2010 is 1.87%, while its share of production is put at 2.22%. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 2.85%, with the country accounting for 4.01% of supply.
For 2011, there is considerable oil demand and oil price uncertainty, but still a very strong possibility that oil will trend higher. Economic growth may have been subdued late in 2010 and into early 2011, but should still support meaningful oil demand increases. Non-OPEC supply is likely to emerge only slightly higher so, with continued OPEC discipline, the foundations have been laid for an oil price rise – albeit falling well short of the improvement seen this year. It seems likely that the 2010 average OPEC basket price will have emerged around the US$77.00 per barrel (bbl) level, representing a year-on-year (y-o-y) gain of approximately 27%. Progress towards at least US$80 is seen as achievable in 2011.
Vietnamese real GDP growth in 2010 is forecast by BMI at 6.0%, with a forecast average annual 6.5% increase in 2010 to 2015. Exploration success has been on the rise in Vietnam, with a growing number of international oil companies (IOCs) teaming up with PetroVietnam and finding and developing hydrocarbon resources – particularly gas. We are assuming that oil and gas liquids production will have peaked at 400,000b/d in 2010, before easing back to 365,000b/d by 2015. Beyond 2009, consumption is forecast to increase by around 5-7% per annum to 2015, implying demand of 488,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas production is forecast to increase from the estimated 2010 figure of 9.1bcm to 22.0bcm by 2015 – providing the basis for exports.
Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting a decline in Vietnamese oil production of 22.50%, with crude volumes peaking at 400,000b/d in 2010, before slipping to 310,000b/d by 2020. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 78.22%, with growth beyond 2009 ranging from 5.0% to 7.0% per annum and the country using 662,000 b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 9.1bcm in 2010 to 25.0bcm in 2020. With 206% demand growth, we see potential for exports midway through the period to turn into modest imports by the end of the period. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts which provide regional and country-specific projections, can be found at the end of this report. Vietnam takes fourth place, behind China, in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) league table, which reflects largely its strong upstream position. The country holds third place, behind India, in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment ratings, with its ranking reflecting a reasonable resource position, better-than-average growth outlook, attractive licensing terms and an IOC-friendly competitive environment. There is a one-point gap between Vietnam and fourth-placed Malaysia, but we believe Vietnam is safe from any near-term challenges. Vietnam now shares ninth place with Pakistan in BMI’s downstream Business Environment ratings, reflecting its modest (but growing) refining capacity, aboveaverage oil and gas demand growth outlook, and low level of retail site intensity.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
Customers who bought this item also bought
Vietnam Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011
Philippines Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011
Vietnam Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011
Vietnam Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012
Hong Kong Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011
India Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011
Pakistan Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011
India Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011
Malaysia Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011
Australia Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011
|
|
|
|
