|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Germany Autos Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Nov 2010, Pages: 60
Germany Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Germany's automotive industry.
German economic growth continues to be driven by the rise in exports, highlighting the resilient nature of eurozone consumption, particularly in core export markets such as France. Passenger car production grew an impressive 14% y-o-y to 4.11mn units during the first nine months of this year, thanks to a robust 31% y-o-y surge in exports to 3.13mn units. Clearly, this performance poses severe upside pressures to BMI’s cautious forecast of 6% y-o-y growth for 2010, prompting us to revise up the growth to a more than 11% y-o-y growth and 5.8mn units. In the longer term, however, we fear the weakness in its core export markets, mostly brought about by austerity measures, will limit production growth to an average 3.5% y-o-y over 2011-2015 to 6.81mn units by the end of the forecast period. Risks to production in Western Europe on the whole also come from the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between the EU and South Korea, conditionally approved by the EC on September 16 2010. With South Korean carmakers already enjoying significant low-cost production in their home market, the removal of import restrictions will further add to the challenges faced by carmakers in Europe. However, there are also gains to be made as data from the Korean Automobile Importers and Distributors Association show a 50% increase in imported vehicle sales in the eight months to August, with German brands accounting for the top four among all importers. Audi, Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes-Benz captured a combined 53.9% share of imported sales in the eight-month period.
Meanwhile, the fight for a market-leading position in the luxury vehicles segment is intensifying, as industry majors plan aggressive product launches and cost-cutting measures. While current market leader BMW is relying on the expansion of its core and Mini line-up to widen the gap between it and its peers, its compatriot and the world's third largest premium carmaker, Audi, is hoping to overtake BMW by 2015. The former has extended its engine-sharing partnership with France's PSA Peugeot Citroën for the joint development, purchase and production of hybrid powertrain components for its front-wheel drive vehicles.
Demand in the domestic market, however, is far from promising. Passenger car sales in Germany fell a staggering 28% y-o-y to 2.17mn units during the first nine months of 2010, reinforcing BMI’s view that the inflated sales from the scrappage scheme will fall heavily on the domestic demand this year. We expect demand to return to positive growth rates in 2011, but that is likely to be primarily due to low base effects from 2010.
A moderation in German economic activity, as the country's export reliance and weak private consumption levels will begin to bite, will indeed lead to weak recovery in demand. Moreover, the saturated nature of the German market and relatively high vehicle ownership levels will mean the market will fail to attain very strong growth rates. We therefore limit our average sales growth forecast to a weak 3.7% y-o-y growth between 2011 and 2014.
Faced with such a mature market demand, it is not surprising that most of the German companies will be seeking for growth overseas, and key emerging markets – such as China, Russia and Brazil – seem to be the most attractive hotspots.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
Customers who bought this item also bought
Germany Autos Report Q4 2010
Germany Autos Report Q1 2012
Germany Autos Report Q3 2011
Germany Autos Report Q2 2012
South Africa Autos Report Q4 2011
Slovakia Autos Report Q4 2011
Namibia Autos Report Q2 2012
Brazil Autos Report Q1 2011
France Autos Report Q1 2011
Algeria Autos Report Q3 2011
|
|
|
|
