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India Autos Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Nov 2010, Pages: 50
India Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on India's automotive industry.
Diwali celebrations and strong economic growth contributed to record car sales in India in October 2010. The 38% increase in car sales and 18% growth in commercial vehicle sales pushed total four-wheel vehicle sales for the first seven months (April to October) of the current financial year up 35% year-onyear (y-o-y). Although the levels of growth in October are unlikely to be sustained for the rest of the year to March 2011, BMI has revised its sales growth forecast for the financial year upwards to 25% for total four-wheel vehicles.
By the end of 2010, we expect car sales to have surpassed 2.6mn units, fuelled by an increasing number of affordable small cars and demand from less penetrated segments, such as rural areas. While rising raw material costs, which have led many carmakers to hike prices, provide a downside risk to our forecast, Vishnu Mathur, director general of the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) notes that the number of months' salary required to buy a car is falling. We believe this will provide some insulation against rising costs, but it will depend on the future movement of input prices.
Reports that South Korean Hyundai Motor will enter India's light commercial vehicle (LCV) market, although unconfirmed, still reflect a growing trend of global carmakers moving into what is a highgrowth segment. While BMI forecasts growth of 17.4% for the whole commercial vehicle market in India in the current financial year ending March 2011, LCVs look likely to outperform the wider segment, with sales up 29.7% for the eight months to August on a calendar year basis.
Suppliers are also wise to the segment's potential. German automotive supplier Continental is looking to expand in India, complementing its partnership with Modi Tyres for the commercial vehicle segment. An increased workforce and higher localisation are also on the agenda as the company looks to capitalise on growing vehicle demand. An interesting factor in Continental's strategy for India, is the country's growing role as an export base. Rose added that due to the large number of vehicle manufacturers now exporting from India, in line with BMI's core view that emerging markets will become global production bases, a high standard of tyre is required. BMI expects sustained double-digit growth in total vehicle exports over the next five years, averaging 13%.
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