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Argentina Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Nov 2010, Pages: 96
Argentina Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Argentina's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
Argentina joined the wide swathe of Latin American countries reporting very solid Q110 real GDP growth figures, with the economy expanding 6.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) according to official data. This marks the fastest expansion since the final months of the pre-crisis boom in Q308, and suggests that ongoing stimulus measures, coupled with a stronger-than-expected rebound in gross fixed capital formation have pushed the Argentine economy into a more robust recovery cycle. With leading indicator data suggesting that domestic demand will remain in its upward trend for the time being, BMI are upgrading their real GDP growth forecast for 2010 to 4.3%, up from 1.5 % previously.
However, Argentina’s elevated political risk profiles – especially in the form of prolonged economic mismanagement – is likely to contribute to the country’s underperformance compared with more business-friendly regional peers over the medium term. In regional terms, Argentina is the sixth most attractive pharmaceutical market in the Americas region according to BMI’s Business Environment Ratings (BERs), with drawbacks including its challenging intellectual property (IP) and pharmaceutical pricing and procurement environments.
Local drugmakers are concerned at the low levels of achievable profitability and the threats this poses to their long-term financial viability – they expected drug prices to increase by 14.5% during 2010, which is over ten percentage points below the government's forecast of cumulative inflation. Nevertheless, volume consumption of medicines in Argentina has increased significantly over the past decade, which should – to a degree – compensate for the gap between pharmaceutical and general consumer price rises. The value of Argentina’s pharmaceutical market is calculated to have reached ARS14.42bn (US$3.85bn) in 2009. Through to 2014, BMI forecast a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.93% and 11.29% in local currency and US dollar terms, with the market value topping ARS30.19bn (US$6.56bn) in 2019. The increased usage of generics and volume changes are expected to be the key drivers of market growth, with patented medicines’ share of the total market by value dropping from 58.0% in 2009 to 47.7% in 2014.
In an attempt to offset exposure to the domestic market, local manufacturers of branded products are entering new export markets, not only in Latin America but as far afield as Yemen, Pakistan and Singapore. In their attempts to boost pharmaceutical exports, both government officials and leading local companies are focusing energetically on so-called ‘South-South trade’ – targeting other developing markets rather than the richer and more regulated countries of the Northern Hemisphere.
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