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Kenya Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Nov 2010, Pages: 96
Kenya Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Kenya's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
Emerging markets will drive industry growth. The importance of emerging markets to large multinational drugmakers cannot be overstated and BMI's Pharmaceutical Expenditure Model shows that five-year compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) in traditional markets, such as the US, Western Europe and Japan, are all in the low single figures. Meanwhile, the US dollar five-year CAGRs for the main emerging markets – Brazil, Russia, India and China – are expected to post double-digit increases.
In BMI's Q111 Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Business Environment Ratings (BERs), the Middle East & Africa region scored a total of 46.4 out of a possible 100. Despite scoring the lowest of all regions for the quarter, increased healthcare spending in the public (as governments increase the proportion of fiscal expenditure devoted to healthcare) and private (as economies grow and per capita wealth increases) sectors, improved access to health facilities, growing awareness of preventative healthcare and the growing burden of non-communicable disease will provide significant opportunities for drugmakers. In BMI’s Q111 BERs for the MEA region, Kenya is in 18th place, above only Zimbabwe, and below Iraq and Nigeria. A sizeable counterfeiting industry, poor healthcare funding, corruption, regulatory environment deficiencies and a number of other issues will conspire to keep Kenya in a similarly lowly position in the MEA matrix over the coming months. Nevertheless, in comparison with many other African markets, most of which are not surveyed by BMI, Kenya offers more commercial promise and a more stable overall business environment.
A key driver of Kenyan pharmaceutical market expansion is the local economy, with real GDP growth rates projected to reach 5.4% in 2014, up from 2.5% in 2009. The country’s rising population, as well as a growing communicable and non-communicable disease burden, will also increase spending on medicines over the forecast period, with per-capita spending forecast to rise from US$8.8 in 2009 to US$16.8 by 2014 and US$30.0 by 2019. By international standards, per-capita drug expenditure is extremely low; however, this compares favourably with other sub-Saharan African markets such as Nigeria. Meanwhile, drug expenditure as a percentage of GDP is forecast to increase from 0.98% in 2009 to 1.07% by 2014. Highlighting opportunities for companies operating in the healthcare sector, the Kenyan government is to waive import duties placed on all medical equipment imported into the country by hospitals. The duty currently placed on medical device imports ranges from 0-15%. BMI believes that in addition to the double digit growth forecast for the medical devices sector, the elimination of the duties highlights opportunities for companies that export medical devices to Kenya. The country is highly reliant on medical devices produced abroad and equipment imports reached a value of KES4.23bn (US$60mn) in 2008. Meanwhile, exports reached a value of KES489mn (US$7mn), creating a negative trade balance of KES3.75bn (US$54mn).
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