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Nigeria Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Nov 2010, Pages: 96
Nigeria Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Nigeria's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
BMI has revised upwards its assessment of Nigeria’s challenging but promising pharmaceutical market. They expect combined sales of prescription drugs and over-the-counter (OTC) medicines to increase from NGN84.26bn (US$564mn) in 2009 to NGN94.25bn (US$633mn) in 2010 – an 11.9% increase in local currency terms and 12.3% increase in US dollar terms. By 2014, BMI calculate Nigeria's pharmaceutical market will be worth NGN142.71bn (US$1.16bn), equating to a CAGR of 11.11% in local currency terms and 15.54% in US dollar terms.
At 35.8 out of 100 Nigeria’s Q111 pharmaceutical Business Environment Rating (BER) score is unchanged compared with Q410. The country remains the 17th most attractive market in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region, ahead of Kenya and behind Iraq. If the country improves its Industry Risks score, for example by reducing the exposure to counterfeit drugs, BMI expect Nigeria to enhance its overall standing.
Pharmaceutical firms have long regarded Nigeria with interest, chiefly because of its massive middleclass population and rising GDP, although BMI caution that most GDP increases depend on oil revenues. High unemployment points to lower purchasing power and BMI therefore estimates per-capita spending on pharmaceuticals at a meagre US$3.6 in 2009. This suggests serious underlying irregularities in income distribution, originating from the higher incomes of the key oil sector.
Fake drugs are a significant problem in Nigeria. In October 2010, Paul Orhii of the National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC) announced the seizure of counterfeit medicines worth NGN450mn (US$2.95mn), which he attributed to the embracing of new anti-counterfeiting technology. The technology he is referring to appears to be a holistic approach to anti-counterfeit regulation at all levels of the pharmaceutical distribution chain.
The burden of communicable diseases in Nigeria exceeds that of non-communicable conditions. Since beginning a WHO drive to eradicate polio, Nigeria claims to have reduced the incidence of the disease by 98%, with only eight cases reported in 2009. Public health officials believe a major factor in the rise was a temporary halt to the vaccination campaign in 2003, when Muslim leaders claimed the vaccination was part of a Western conspiracy to sterilise Muslim women.
Multinational pharmaceutical companies, both from developed states and emerging markets, compete with local drugmakers in Nigeria’s pharmaceutical market. A total of nine pharmaceutical companies are listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange. Of these firms, the largest is the local subsidiary of UK-based GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), with a market capitalisation of US$181mn. The next largest are Fidson Healthcare, Morison Industries and Evans Medical.
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