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Bosnia and Herzegovina Real Estate Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Nov 2010, Pages: 59
Bosnia and Herzegovina Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, real estate associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bosnia and Herzegovina's Real Estate industry.
Although smaller in absolute terms and perhaps less well integrated into the global economy than other countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), Bosnia has not escaped unscathed from the global financial crisis. Economic growth at near double-digit rates in the middle of the decade was followed by expansion of only slightly more than 5% in 2008 and a 3% contraction in 2009. As 2010 progressed, it became clearer that the economy is likely to remain weak for some time to come. Households are likely to contribute far less to economic growth than they have in the past, and the government is pursuing a tough fiscal policy.
Economic conditions were such that a number of real estate projects have been shelved. Nevertheless, the supply of commercial space (for offices, retail and residential use) from projects whose construction ended in 2009 (or which are due to be completed in early 2010) means that pressure on rents will be downwards in Sarajevo and most other centres.
BMI interviewed their in-country sources at the beginning of 2010 and again in the middle of the year. The second round of interviews gave us clearer details of yields in Zenica, but generally confirmed their earlier findings.
BMI expects that yields in all sub-sectors will continue to fall in Sarajevo through 2010 and 2011. This is because rentals will likely fall further in an environment where there are few property transactions. However, they expect that capital values (prices) will reach market-clearing levels in 2012 and that yields will rise gradually thereafter.
The patterns for Trebinje should be different. The development of the airport appears to have fostered sufficient interest in commercial property, relative to available space; such that yields are currently well below those of Sarajevo. BMI expects that rents will rise faster than capital values, with the result that yields move upwards towards those prevailing in the capital. For the time being, though, BMI expects yields in Trebinje will continue to be well below those of Sarajevo – across all three major sub-sectors – through to 2015. They envisage that yields will rise in Zenica as well, and that they will still be below yields in Sarajevo in 2015.
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