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BMI India Retail Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Nov 2010, Pages: 66
India Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on India's retail industry.
The Q111 BMI India Retail Report forecasts that total retail sales will grow from INR18.85trn (US$392.63bn) in 2011 to INR26.64trn (US$674.37bn) by 2014. Strong underlying economic growth, population expansion, the increasing wealth of individuals and the rapid construction of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast growth.
As well as an expanding middle and upper class consumer base, there will also be opportunities in India’s second- and third-tier cities. The greater availability of personal credit and a growing vehicle population providing improved mobility also contribute to a trend towards annual retail sales growth of 12.1%. India’s nominal GDP is forecast at US$1.72trn in 2011. Average annual GDP growth of 8.1% is predicted by BMI through to 2014. With the population expected to increase from 1.19bn in 2011 to 1.23bn by 2014, GDP per capita is forecast to rise by nearly 77% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$2,563. BMI forecasts for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$830 in 2011 to US$1,439 in 2014.
The growth in the overall retail market will be driven largely by the explosion in the organised retail market. Domestic retailers such as Reliance Retail and Pantaloon Retail continue to invest heavily in increasing their store networks and improving in-store offerings, and the impact they have on growth will be boosted by the arrival of expansion-orientated multinationals.
Mass grocery retail (MGR) sales in India are expected to undergo enormous growth over the forecast period. BMI predicts that sales through MGR outlets will increase by 145% to reach US$21.35bn by 2014. This is a consequence of India’s dramatic, rapid shift from small independent retailers to large, modern outlets, although it must also be noted that this growth is forecast to come from a very low starting point.
BMI forecasts consumer electronic sales at US$29.09bn in 2011, with over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales at US$2.69bn. The former sub-sector is expected to show growth of 55.6% between 2011 and 2014, reaching US$45.27bn, with projected double-digit growth of key products such as notebooks, mobile handsets and TVs. OTC pharmaceuticals, meanwhile, should increase slightly more, by 56.5% throughout the forecast period, to reach US$4.21bn.
Retail sales for the BMI universe of Asian countries in 2011 are a forecast US$3.09trn. China and India are predicted to account for more than 91% of regional retail sales in 2011, and by 2014 their share of the regional market is expected to be more than 92%. Growth in regional retail sales for 2011-2014 is forecast by BMI at 48.1%, an annual average 15%. China should experience the most rapid rate of growth, followed by Indonesia. India’s forecast market share of 14.2% in 2011 is expected to increase slightly to 14.3% by 2014.
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