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Algeria Autos Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Nov 2010, Pages: 38
Algeria Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Algeria's automotive industry.
In common with most countries, Algeria experienced a poor year in terms of new car imports and sales in 2009, owing to the effects of the global economic downturn, although the decline in sales was not as catastrophic as that seen in some other markets. Imports of new vehicles stood at 231,760 units, according to the Association des Concessionnaires Automobiles d’Algerie (ACAA). This represented a fall of 6% year-on-year (y-o-y). Looking at trends in 2010, over the first half of the year a total of 115,008 new vehicles were sold in Algeria, according to the ACAA. This figure had risen to 173,250 by the time this report went to press in late October 2010.
However, on a less encouraging note, an October 2010 report by the Algérie Presse Service (citing figures from the national customs centre for data processing and statistics – CNIS) stated that imports of new cars had actually fallen 17.69% in the first eight months of the year, to 219,365 vehicles, from 266,513 units for the Jan-Aug 2009 period. From January to late August 2010, APS reported that the 34 car dealers in Algeria imported 206,014 vehicles (at a total import cost of DZD188,544bn) compared with 254,093 vehicles (at a total import cost of DZD249,787bn) for the same period in 2009. This represented an 18.92% drop in the number of vehicles y-o-y.
As virtually all of the new cars sold in Algeria are imports (with the exception of some industrial vehicles produced domestically), this news that imports have fallen so sharply would indicate that 2010 is unlikely to see a significant increase in new car sales for Algeria, when compared with 2009. That said, one feature of the Algerian autos market is that there can sometimes be a slight time delay between cars being imported into the country and their eventual sale and registration.
Given this backdrop, and assuming sales will pick up slightly over the second half of the year, as potential customers feel the benefits of economic recovery within Algeria (our Macroeconomic team is forecasting 5% real GDP growth for 2010), BMI believes that a total of 236,395 units will be sold over 2010, representing a slight increase of 2% y-o-y.
Beyond 2010, we expect reasonably strong annual growth (of around 5% per annum) for vehicle sales, in line with a growing domestic economy. We forecast that the annual volume of new vehicle sales should surpass the 300,000 unit mark during 2015.
Car Fleet Exceeded 4mn In 2009
Figures released by Algeria’s Office Nationale de Statistics (ONS) in October 2010 showed that Algeria’s total car fleet (new and used) increased by some 200,000 vehicles during 2009, to total 4,171,827 units. A report by the APS said that the number of registered and re-registered vehicles totalled 987,193 units, including 185,821 new vehicles.
Looking at the composition of the national car fleet in 2009, what the ACAA dubs as ‘véhicules de tourisme’ (literally, ‘tourist vehicles’, but here likely to mean all passenger cars) made up 2,593,310 units (62.16%), followed by vans (821,626 units – 19.69%), lorries (362,257 – 8.68%), tractors (130,839 – 3.14%), trailers (115,972 – 2.78%), buses and coaches (70,070 – 1.68%), semi-trailers (63,471 – 1.52%), motorbikes (10,978 – 0.26%) and ‘special vehicles’ (3,358 – 0.08%)
The national car fleet remains very old, with vehicles older than 20 years representing 57.42% of the national fleet, according to the ONS. Vehicles under five years old only represent 22.36% of the entire fleet (passenger vehicles 147,658 units and vans 33,968 units), which shows the clear potential for future growth in new car sales over our newly extended forecast period to 2015.
The ACAA says that, citing ONS’ consolidated figures, imported vehicles (new + used) stood at 269,018 units, a fall of 23.64% compared with 2008 (352,315 units), of which 246,522 cars were imported by dealers (down 24.73%) and 22,496 units (down 9.32%) by individuals.
The ONS adds that over ‘56% of vehicles (199,744 units for 2009) have not been registered, remembering that in 2008 some 20,850 imported vehicles on the roads were only finally registered during 2009’.
Commercial Vehicle Tax May Affect Demand
Further depressing demand for new vehicles within Algeria was the news in July 2010 that the government is to extend a tax on new commercial vehicles (such as trailers and semi-trailers), as part of its 2010 budget. According to the ACCA, this tax will be progressive, ranging from DZD300,000- 700,000 (US$4,080-9,520 at current exchange rates), depending on the type of vehicle. The same report also said that buses and other public transport that carry between nine and 20 passengers will be subject to a tax of DZD150,000; those carrying between 20 and 30 passengers a tax of DZD200,000 and those carrying 30+ passengers a tax of DZD300,000. Adding to the fiscal burden on Algerian motorists, the 2010 budget also calls for variable rate taxes to be levied on motorbikes and scooters, ranging from DZD50,000 to DZD100,000 dependent on engine size.
Market Overview
Renault is the market leader in the country by a comfortable margin. The French firm, operating under its local sales and distribution subsidiary Renault Algérie, sold a total of 37,306 new vehicles in Algeria in the first half of 2010, inclusive of 26,161 vehicles under its main banner, and 11,145 vehicles belonging to the Dacia brand. This amounts to a combined market share of 32.4% of new vehicle sales in Algeria in the first half of the calendar year. There is a considerable gap between Renault Algérie and the number two auto company operating in Algeria, Hyundai Motor. The Japanese firm sold 14,299 vehicles through its local distributor Rebrab GPE in H110, giving it a market share of 12.4% (up slightly from a low of 10.6% for calendar 2009 as a whole). In third place – but only just – is Toyota Algérie, which sold 10,953 vehicles in H110 (inclusive of Daihatsu models), for a market share of 9.5% (down from a share of 10.5% for calendar 2009 as a whole, and 12.5% for 2008 as a whole). Peugeot is the fourth biggest selling brand, with sales of 10,912 in H110, giving it a market share of 9.5%. Chevrolet lies in fifth place, with sales in H110 of 10,870 units, which also works out as a market share of 9.5%. This report includes a SWOT analysis for both Renault Algérie and Toyota Algérie.
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