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Argentina Autos Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Dec 2010, Pages: 55
Argentina Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Argentina's automotive industry.
Brazil and Argentina are discussing ways of speeding up the process of integrating auto parts production within the Mercosur trade bloc, in a move which is mutually beneficial. The move could help Argentina draw in more investment from suppliers, which BMI believes has been one of the major impediments to new auto investments in the country.
Our caution about Argentina is evident from our moderate forecast for output growth averaging 7% yearon- year (y-o-y) between 2011 and 2015. This follows a record 711,732 vehicles expected to be produced by the end of 2010, which will help take total production to nearly 995,000 units by the end of 2015. By all measures, this means that Argentina could severely lag behind both Brazil and Mexico, where we expect respective production to reach 4.9mn and 3.07mn units by the end of 2015.
Meanwhile, growth in domestic demand is being led by consumers bringing forward their car purchases to hedge against inflation. In the first nine months of 2010, sales have risen an impressive 40% y-o-y, to 497,715 units. In light of our broader economic view – with BMI expecting a real GDP growth of 4.3% y-o-y this year – and amid talks that the zero km plan will be scrapped soon, we expect Argentine carmakers to speed up their vehicle purchases considerably at least in the short term. As such, we maintain our sales forecast of over 645,400 units expected to be shifted by the end of this year. We forecast this will be followed by another 9% y-o-y growth rate in 2011 as we expect the government to be keen on boosting consumer spending as much as possible in the run up to next year's parliamentary and presidential elections.
Demand in Argentina is nowhere close to saturation point and this is evident from carmakers’ revising their strategies with a view to cornering a greater share of the market. Nissan Americas, which has so far been supported by Renault Argentina, has partnered with Manuel Antelo, the president of Argentina's largest automotive logistics company CAR Group to help strengthen the company's sales, service and distribution and achieve over a 5% share in the country by 2014.
There is similar optimism in the country’s motorcycle segment. Ghiggeri Motorcycles has opened a plant in Puerto Tirol, the first in north east Argentina. It is aiming to take advantage the low cost of production in the area and cater to the growing appetite for motorcycles in the country as a whole. Foreign and domestic motorcycle companies have already begun establishing a presence in the country. India's TVS Motors is looking to make its foray into Argentina – as well as Mexico – when it begins producing vehicles in Colombia for export to these countries within the next two years. Local player Zanella, meanwhile, is trying to woo buyers with its CNG-powered motorcycle, due to be produced by Argentine manufacturer Ecopos.
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