Australia Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, November 2010, Pages: 129
Australia Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Australia's oil and gas industry.
The latest Australia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.20% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 6.70% of supply. Regional oil use of 21.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 will reach an estimated 27.11mn b/d in 2010, then rises to around 30.64mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was around 8.35mn b/d in 2001, and will average an estimated 8.91mn b/d in 2010. It is set to decrease slightly to 8.89mn b/d by 2015. Oil imports are growing rapidly because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was importing an average of 13.07mn b/d. This total will rise to an estimated 18.20mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 21.75mn b/d by 2015. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2015 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region is expected to have consumed 489bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 633bcm is targeted for 2015. Production of an estimated 412bcm in 2010 should reach 548bcm in 2015, implying net imports rising from around 77bcm to 84bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Australia’s share of gas consumption in 2010 will have been an estimated 5.53%, while its share of production is put at 12.14%. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 4.92%, with the country accounting for 14.78% of supply.
For 2011, there is considerable oil demand and oil price uncertainty, but still a very strong possibility that oil will trend higher. Economic growth may have been subdued late in 2010 and into early 2011, but should still support meaningful oil demand increases. Non-OPEC supply is likely to emerge only slightly higher so, with continued OPEC discipline, the foundations have been laid for an oil price rise – albeit falling well short of the improvement seen this year. It seems likely that the 2010 average OPEC basket price will average around US$77.00 per barrel (bbl), representing a year-on-year (y-o-y) gain of approximately 27%. Progress towards at least US$80 is seen as achievable in 2011.
Australian real GDP is assumed by BMI to increase by 2.3% in 2010. They are now predicting average annual GDP growth of 2.5% between 2010 and 2015. There is no state oil industry, but domestic and leading international companies are investing heavily in gas production and exports to help offset declining oil output. BMI are assuming oil and gas liquids production peaking at 640,000b/d in 2013 then falling to 595,000b/d by 2015. Consumption is forecast to increase by less than 1.0% per annum to 2014, implying demand of 979,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be about 384,000b/d by 2015.
Between 2010 and 2020, the authors are forecasting a decrease in Australian oil production of 29.21%, with crude volumes peaking in 2013 at 640,000b/d, before falling steadily to 395,000b/d by the end of the period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 6.16%, with growth slowing to an assumed 0.5% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 1mn b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise rapidly, from an estimated 50bcm in 2010 to a possible 110bcm by 2020. With 10-year demand growth of 30.52%, this provides export potential rising from an estimated 23bcm to 75bcm, all in the form of LNG. Details of BMI’s long-term oil and gas outlook can be found at the end of this report, including regional and country-specific forecasts to 2020.
Australia is again at the head of BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) league table, thanks to its leading position in the updated upstream BE rating that reflects its balance of strong gas production/export potential, world-class regulatory structure and solid risk environment. However, the 16-point upstream rating gap between it and second-placed India flatters Australia as it is due largely to the poorer country risk environment in India. Indeed, given the greater potential for more rapid growth in both Vietnam and India, the gap should narrow over the medium term, particularly as the country risk environment improves in both countries. Australia is further down the league table in BMI’s downstream Business Environment ratings, reflecting its status as a mature, deregulated and competitive energy market with limited growth potential. It now shares sixth place out of 15 with Indonesia. It could slip further down the rankings as country risk improves elsewhere in the region.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Australia Political SWOT
Australia Economic SWOT
Australia Business Environment SWOT
Australia Energy Market Overview
Global Oil Market Review
Regaining Momentum
Quarterly Trends
Global Oil Market Outlook
Sitting Comfortably
Oil Price Forecasts
Oil Supply, Demand And Price Outlook
Short-Term Demand Outlook
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Short-Term Supply Outlook
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)
Longer-Term Supply And Demand
Oil Price Assumptions
Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2010
Table: Oil Price Forecasts
Regional Energy Market Overview
Oil Supply And Demand
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d)
Oil: Downstream
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Gas Supply And Demand
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm)
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm)
Liquefied Natural Gas
Table: Asia Pacific LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)
Business Environment Ratings
Asia Pacific Region
Composite Scores
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating
Upstream Scores
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating
Australia Upstream Rating – Overview
Australia Upstream Rating – Rewards
Australia Upstream Rating – Risks
Downstream Scores
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating
Australia Downstream Rating – Overview
Australia Downstream Rating – Rewards
Australia Downstream Rating – Risks
Business Environment
Legal Framework
Infrastructure
Labour Force
Foreign Investment Policy
FDI Regime
Foreign Trade Regime
Tax Regime
Security Risk
Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
LNG
Coal Bed Methane/Coal Seam Gas
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Table: Australia Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts
Other Energy
Table: Australia Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Long-Term Energy Outlook
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Refineries In Australia
LNG Terminals
Table: LNG Terminals In Australia
North-Western WA
Northern Territory
East-Central Queensland
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Australia - Economic Activity
Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Players – Australia Oil And Gas Sector
Overview/State Role
Government Policy
Licensing Rounds
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
Woodside Petroleum
Santos
BHP Billiton
Apache Corp
Arrow Energy
Chevron Australia
ConocoPhillips
ExxonMobil Australia
Royal Dutch Shell
BG Group Australia
Origin Energy – Summary
China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) – Summary
BP – Summary
Petrobras/ MEO – Summary
Roc Oil – Summary
Inpex – Summary
Sinopec – Summary
PTTEP – Summary
Murphy Oil – Summary
Total – Summary
Hess – Summary
Others – Summary
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
Regional Oil Demand
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Regional Oil Supply
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d)
Regional Refining Capacity
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Regional Gas Demand
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm)
Regional Gas Supply
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm)
Australia Country Overview
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Business Environment Ratings Methodology
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings – Methodology
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology
Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross Checks
Sources
- Woodside Petroleum
- Santos
- BHP Billiton
- Apache Corp
- Arrow Energy
- Chevron Australia
- ConocoPhillips
- ExxonMobil Australia
- Royal Dutch Shell
- BG Group Australia
- Origin Energy
- China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC)
- BP
- Petrobras/ MEO
- Roc Oil
- Inpex
- Sinopec
- PTTEP
- Murphy Oil
- Total
- Hess
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