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China Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Nov 2010, Pages: 150
China Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on China's oil and gas industry.
The latest China Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 36.79% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 44.00% of supply. Regional oil use of 21.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 will reach an estimated 27.11mn b/d in 2010, then rises to around 30.64mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was around 8.35mn b/d in 2001, and will average an estimated 8.91mn b/d in 2010. It is set to decrease slightly to 8.89mn b/d by 2015. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was importing an average of 13.07mn b/d. This total will rise to an estimated 18.20mn b/d in 2010, and is forecast to reach 21.75mn b/d by 2015. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2015 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region is expected to have consumed 489bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 633bcm is targeted for 2015. Production of an estimated 412bcm in 2010 should reach 548bcm in 2015, implying net imports rising from around 77bcm to 84bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. China’s estimated share of gas consumption in 2010 is 19.97%, while its share of production is 20.87%. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 202.14%, with the country accounting for 16.42% of supply.
For 2011, there is considerable oil demand and oil price uncertainty, but still a very strong possibility that oil will trend higher. Economic growth may have been subdued late in 2010 and into early 2011, but should still support meaningful oil demand increases. Non-OPEC supply is likely to emerge only slightly higher so, with continued OPEC discipline, the foundations have been laid for an oil price rise – albeit falling well short of the improvement seen this year. It seems likely that the 2010 average OPEC basket price will have emerged around the US$77.00 per barrel (bbl) level, representing a year-on-year (y-o-y) gain of approximately 27%. Progress towards at least US$80 is seen as achievable in 2011.
Chinese real GDP growth is assumed by BMI to have increased by 9.7% in 2010. They are assuming average annual growth in 2010-2015 of 7.9%. While partly privatised, the oil and gas industry remains under state control, with PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC charged with maintaining domestic production. BMI are assuming oil and gas liquids output of no more than 3.91mn b/d by 2015, although the country is expected to have pumped 3.99mn b/d in 2010. Oil consumption is forecast to increase by around 22.33% in 2010-2015, implying demand of 11.27mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be about 7.36mn b/d by 2015.
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