Hong Kong Retail Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, November 2010, Pages: 57
Business Monitor International's Hong Kong Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Hong Kong's retail industry.
The Q111 BMI Hong Kong Retail report forecasts that total retail sales for the Chinese special administrative region (SAR) will grow from a predicted HKD300.03bn (US$38.64bn) in 2011 to HKD340.33bn (US$43.83bn) by 2014. Rising disposable incomes and a strong tourism industry are key factors behind the forecast growth.
Hong Kong’s nominal GDP is forecast to be US$235.24bn in 2011. We predict average annual GDP growth of 3.5% through to 2014. With the population increasing from 7.1mn to 7.3mn over this period, GDP per capita is forecast to rise 16.8%, from US$32,855 in 2010 to US$37,417 by 2014. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$20,718 in 2011 to US$23,507 by 2014. Tourist spending contributes significantly to Hong Kong retail sales, and the Hong Kong Tourist Board (HKTB) has provisionally reported that total tourism arrivals for 2009 stood at 29.59mn, an increase of 0.3% on 2008. Based on data from the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), we estimate that tourism expenditure reached US$25.05bn in 2010 – up from an estimated US$20.87bn in 2009 – and forecast that it will hit US$33.40bn by 2014.
Retail sub-sectors that are forecast to achieve healthy sales growth throughout the period include overthe- counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals, which are predicted to rise by nearly 28%, from US$0.27bn in 2011 to US$0.34bn by 2014. Automotives are forecast to increase by more than 21%, from US$1.38bn in 2011 to US$1.52bn by 2014. Consumer electronics sales are predicted to grow from US$3.98bn in 2011 to US$4.54bn, a rise of nearly 10%, by the end of the forecast period as demand grows for high-end products such as multimedia notebooks, 3G phones and smartphones.
BMI food consumption data suggests that the food retail segment will have a market share of 31.1% in 2011. The sub-sector is forecast to be worth US$12.0bn in 2011, and sales are expected to grow to US$12.52bn by 2014. Given that expansion of non-food retail is expected significantly to exceed that of the food segment, which is a very mature industry in Hong Kong, our forecasts suggest a reduction in the retail market share of food to 28.6% in 2014. Per capita food consumption is still forecast to be US$1,720 in 2014, which is impressive for the region.
Retail sales for the BMI universe of Asian countries in 2011 are a forecast US$3.09trn. China and India are predicted to account for more than 91% of regional retail sales in 2011, and by 2014 their share of the regional market is expected to be more than 92%. Growth in regional retail sales for 2011-2014 is forecast by BMI at 48.1%, an annual average 15%. China should experience the most rapid rate of growth, followed by Indonesia. Hong Kong’s forecast market share of 1.2% in 2011 is expected to ease to 1.0% by 2014.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Hong Kong Retail Business Environment SWOT
- Hong Kong Political SWOT
- Hong Kong Economic SWOT
Business Environment Outlook
- Asia Pacific Retail Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Asia Pacific Retail Business Environment Ratings
- Hong Kong’s Retail Business Environment Rating
- Limits To Potential Returns
- Risks To Realisation Of Returns
- Market Overview
- Key Players
- Current Trends
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Retail Growth Outlook
- Table: Key Retail Indicators, 2007-2014
- Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2011f
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Hong Kong Economic Activity, 2007-2014
- Regional Retail Outlook
- Table: Asia Retail Sales, 2007-2014 (US$bn)
- Table: Asia Food Consumption, 2007-2014 (US$$bn)
- Table: Asia Macroeconomic Outlook, 2007-2014
- Tourism
- Market Overview
- Table: Arrivals Data, 2007-2014
- Table: Tourism Expenditure & Economic Impact, 2007-2014
- Table: Inbound Tourism Data, 2007-2014
Consumer Electronics
- Hong Kong Consumer Electronics SWOT
- Market Overview
- Computers
- Table: Computer Sales, 2007-2014 (US$mn)
- Audio/Video
- Table: AV Sales, 2007-2014 (US$mn)
- Mobile Handsets
- Table: Mobile Sales & Subscribers, 2007-2014
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Consumer Electronics Overview (US$mn)
- Industry Developments
OTC Pharmaceuticals
- Hong Kong Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Industry SWOT
- Market Overview
- Regulatory Regime
- Regulatory Developments
- Chronology Of Drug Incidents In Hong Kong Since March 2009
- Intellectual Property Issues
- Counterfeit Drugs
- Pricing And Reimbursement Regime
- Public Procurement Of Medicines
- Industry Forecast Scenario
Country Snapshot: Hong Kong Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Average Annual Wages, 2005-2012
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Sources
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