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Mexico Telecommunications Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Nov 2010, Pages: 100
Business Monitor International's Mexico Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Mexico's telecommunications industry.
BMI’s latest update on Mexico’s telecommunications market contains extended forecast figures stretching out to 2015 for the country’s fixed-line telephony, broadband subscriber and mobile customer markets. Our new forecast figures are partly based on data published by Mexico’s Comisión Federal de Telecomunicaciones (Cofetel). Meanwhile, our forecasts incorporate H110 data that have been published by the majority of Mexico’s telecoms operators. Although new data from the country’s operators have yet to be published for Q310, the developments over the past three months have served to add credence to our existing views on the Mexican telecoms market.
Based on the available data, we calculate that the market grew by 3.9% in the first six months of 2010, reflecting the addition of 3.22mn new customers. Growth rates for the first two quarters of 2010 were also higher than in the same quarters in 2009. BMI now predicts growth of 8% for 2010 as a whole. Furthermore we now forecast a total market of around 107mn subscribers by the end of 2015, reflecting a penetration rate of 95%, up from just under 94% for 2014.
Key developments in the mobile sector include news in October 2010 that mobile operator Nextel Mexico, which is owned by NII Holdings, will no longer be forming a partnership with Mexican media conglomerate Grupo Televisa. That said, our view is that Nextel is unlikely to have problems funding the roll-out of its 3G network, which it has said it will now do alone. In addition, the companies are understood to still be discussing options – this may include marketing services together without financial investment from one company into the other.
Another significant happening this quarter was the announcement that Mexican television was going digital. Mexican President Felipe Calderón issued a statement on September 2 2010 that TV broadcasts would be switched from analogue to digital-standard transmissions, freeing up valuable spectrum space for mobile data and internet applications. BMI has identified the high demand for mobile data services as a key strength of the Mexican telecoms market and we expect 3G uptake to continue to grow in the coming years. The switch to digital will facilitate this growth and also pave the way for next-generation (4G) technology.
This quarter also saw Mexico jump up a place in BMI’s Telecoms Business Environment Ratings to third. This climb in the rankings was, however, not a result of Mexico’s scores changing from last quarter, but rather the misfortunes of peer markets, which caused Mexico to climb up one place. In sum, Mexico has a large population and strong growth potential relative to its regional peers. It is a huge country that offers a vast scope of continued development for the telecoms industry. Furthermore, Mexico has also rebounded strongly out of recession, with BMI forecasting real GDP growth of 4.4% yo- y for 2010.
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