Turkey Petrochemicals Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, November 2010, Pages: 45
The Turkey Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, petrochemical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Turkey's petrochemicals industry.
In 2010 Turkey’s ethylene production capacity remained unchanged at 520,000tonnes per annum (tpa), providing feedstock for plants with capacities of 140,000tpa ethylene dichloride, 100,000tpa ethylene glycol, 80,000tpa ethylene oxide, 100,000tpa HDPE and 310,000tpa LDPE. Turkey has capacities of 150,000tpa PP, 150,000tpa VCM/PVC capacity, 140,000tpa PTA, 135,000tpa benzene and 80,000tpa PS. As there have been no firm new project announcements, BMI has not changed its forecasts for the petrochemicals sector, despite Turkish plastics conversion production capacity rising from an estimated 6.5mn tpa in 2009 to reach 11.3mn tpa in 2013 and 13mn tpa by 2014. However, there are positive signs that expansion is likely over coming years. State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) announced in 2010 that it intended to invest US$10bn over the next seven to eight years in Petkim’s operations.
Around US$3.0-3.5bn will be invested in the construction of a 200,000barrels per day (b/d) refinery, due to be completed by 2015, with a significant proportion of the rest invested in downstream activities as well as infrastructure. In H210, Petkim began negotiations with Vopak to form a joint venture to expand and operate the port of Aliaga. This should give it capacity to handle 20-25mn tpa of bulk liquids, mainly petrochemicals. An agreement was reportedly due by year-end with the port project to be completed by 2018. Clearly, SOCAR is committed to transforming Petkim into an export-oriented company, with better access to European markets.
The domestic market is also showing signs of increased potential, both over the short term and long term. The Turkish plastics market is likely to recover strongly and outpace other countries in Central and Eastern Europe. Growth is occurring on the back of the unabated rise in capacity utilisation in the manufacturing sector, which reached 74.7% in July, its highest level since September 2008, having remained above the 70.0% mark since April in 2010. The strong reading in July highlights a considerable resilience of the Turkish export sector in the face of fiscal austerity programmes initiated in Europe and appears to brush off concerns of an unwinding of inventory restocking cycles in OECD countries. This bolsters Turkish demand for petrochemicals and plastics.
We continue to forecast 4.7% real GDP growth in 2011, making Turkey a regional outperformer and shoring up the country’s petrochemicals market. Lacking a broad domestic petrochemicals industry capable of fulfilling domestic needs, Turkey will create significant demand for chemicals for its own conversion industries. A vibrant consumer sector and large-scale infrastructural challenges facing Turkey over the coming years will hold the economy in good stead. This will lift the market for a broad range of segments, particularly PVC which is used in construction with house-building set to pick up as well as PP used in consumer durables and car production.
SWOT Analysis
Turkey Petrochemicals Industry SWOT
Turkey Political SWOT
Turkey Economic SWOT
Turkey Business Environment SWOT
Global Overview
Petrochemicals Market Overview
Table: World Ethylene Production By Country, 2009 And 2014 (‘000 tonnes capacity)
Financial Results
Table: Financial Results Of Major Petrochemicals Companies, 2009
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions 2010 (Us$/Bbl)
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts (Us$/Bbl)
European Petrochemicals Overview
Table: Financial Results Of European Petrochemicals Producers, Q110 (EURmn)
Turkey Market Overview
Market Structure
Market Evolution
Table: Turkey's Petrochemicals Sector – Cracker Capacity, 2008-2014 ('000tpa)
Petrochemicals Business Environment
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings
Industry Trends And Developments
Table: Turkey’s Petrochemicals And Plastics Market, 2004-2015
Post-Privatisation
Projects And Expansions
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Turkey’s Petrochemicals Industry, 2007-2015(‘000tpa unless otherwise stated)
Macroeconomic Activity
Table: Turkey – Economic Activity, 2005-2014
Company Monitor
DuPont (Advansa)
Petkim
Turkish Petroleum Refineries Corporation (Tüpras)
Glossary Of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry
Cross Checks
Business Environment Ratings
Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
- DuPont (Advansa)
- Petkim
- Turkish Petroleum Refineries Corporation (Tüpras)
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