|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Croatia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Nov 2010, Pages: 87
The Croatia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Croatia's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
In BMI’s Business Environment Ratings (BERs) matrix for the Emerging Europe region in Q111, Croatia’s position improved to 15th, up by two places on the previous quarter. However, the shift of its position was due to the worsening of absolute scores for other emerging markets in the region, as Croatia’s own score was also lower in Q111 then previously. Key drawbacks include the country’s small market size and the restrictive pricing and reimbursement environment, which are expected to result in only modest annual increases in the value of the pharmaceutical market value. On the other hand, Croatia is making concerted efforts to meet its European Union (EU) membership requirements, which should facilitate market access for foreign players.
In fact, Croatia’s pharmaceutical market reached a value of HRK5.74bn (US$1.10bn) in 2009, and is thus calculated to have fallen by 4.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) in local currency terms, or by 3.0% in US dollars, due to lower volumes of publicly subsidised drugs and hospital tendering. For 2010, we expect virtually no change, penning in a 0.1% increase in the market’s value on the back of anaemic economic recovery and low levels of inflation. For the 2009-2014 period, BMI forecasts pharmaceutical sales to increase by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.15% over the five years to 2014. At this point, the market is projected to be worth HRK6.70bn (US$1.18bn), with patent expiries also weighing heavily on its value development.
BMI’s forecasts are based on our view that major fiscal tightening is unlikely in Croatia over the next 12 months, with parliamentary elections scheduled for November 2012 and low poll ratings set to dissuade the government from making unpopular spending cuts. While we expect some improvement in the second half of the year, we nevertheless expect revenues to have contracted by 1.0% in 2010 to HRK126.8bn. However, the government has started to tighten fiscal policy, with public spending down by 1.3% y-o-y, as weak conditions in the economy showing few signs of abating. In fact, we expect the Croatian economy to undergo a second full year of negative growth in 2010, with the ongoing dire outlook for private consumption leading us to revise down our real GDP growth forecast to -0.4%. Still, over the longer run Croatia should still post relatively robust trend growth, though we caution it will remain below pre-crisis levels.
Better commercial opportunities are expected to be presented by the Croatian market for medical equipment, which was estimated to be worth HRK1.43bn (US273mn) in 2009. For 2010, we have calculated growth of 2.1% in local currency terms (or -1.1% in US dollars), which is generally considerably lower than in previous years. Through to 2014, the medical devices market is forecast to post a local currency CAGR of 4.83%, which is above that expected for the pharmaceutical segment. However, both forecasts will also be shaped by wider economic forces, given an increase in private contributions to patients’ healthcare and cost-containment measures meted out by the public sector.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
|
|
|
|
