Strategic Analysis of the Chinese Electric Vehicle Market

Frost & Sullivan, October 2010, Pages: 113

Chinese Electric Vehicle Market to Step on Pedal from 2012

Currently niche EV makers and traditional OEMs in the Chinese automotive market are running pilot programmes based on lead acid and lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries. By 2012, mainstream local vehicle makers are expected to introduce CEVs and eREVs based on Li-ion batteries for consumer use. Strong growth is anticipated during 2013-2015 as local and JV vehicle makers aggressively roll out CEVs and eREVs, supported by growth in the charging infrastructure and declining Li-ion battery prices. This is being supported by various government-backed incentives programmes. Such trends are making the Chinese EV market a hot destination for local and foreign vehicle manufacturers.

The Chinese Government is actively seeking ways to reduce global warming, which is primarily caused by the burning of hydrocarbon fuels. With zero-emission performance, EVs contribute significantly to this goal. “The Chinese government is determined to make China the leading EV market by 2015,” notes the analyst of this research. “To this end, they are offering several incentives and subsidies for the development and purchase of EVs.” Cash subsidies will be extended to individual customers in five cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, Changchun and Shenzhen from 2011. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) in China will provide a 20 billion RMB package from 2010 to 2012, offering tax breaks and R&D support to OEMs developing new energy cars, including EVs. The Ministry of Science and Technology (MST) is offering a 10 billion RMB subsidy package to sponsor the R&D activities of local OEMs in designing and manufacturing new energy cars. The Chinese Government offers cash incentives of up to $8,824 per CEV and $6,618-$7,353 per eREV in the 13 selected cities. This is expected to be extended to 20 cities in late 2010 for fleet buyers.

Government Incentives Coupled with Infrastructure Development to Promote Mass Adoption of EVs

Many potential Chinese customers do not clearly understand that the running cost of EVs is much lower than that of conventional cars. Moreover, the ability of EVs to reduce pollutant emissions is not fully acknowledged. “In addition to high cost, prospective customers are also concerned about the high voltage system and worry about safety issues of lithium-ion battery packs,” cautions the analyst. “Some potential customers believe EVs offer inferior driving performance compared to conventional vehicles.” These negative consumer perceptions are some major challenges that will need to be overcome in the Chinese EV market.

Nevertheless, subsidies and incentives offered by the Chinese Government, along with the aggressive re-charging infrastructure plan they have rolled out, will ensure the mass adoption of EVs in China where there is already a huge market for electric two-wheelers. Additionally, as domestic OEMs like BYD, Chana and SAIC are also eyeing the eREV market, this will boost consumer confidence in the driving range and performance of an EV. “The massive government backing, aggressive infrastructure plans for restructuring and focus on all types of EVs ranging from NEV, CEV to eREV will constitute key reasons for growth of the overall electric vehicle market in China by 2015,” concludes the analyst.

Market Sectors

Expert Frost & Sullivan analysts thoroughly examine the following market sectors in this research:

- Neighbourhood electric vehicles (NEVs)
- City electric vehicles (CEVs)
- Extended-range electric vehicles (eREVs)
- High performance electric vehicles (HPEVs)

This Frost & Sullivan research service titled Strategic Analysis of the Chinese Electric Vehicle Market provides a strategic overview of the market including technology roadmaps, market size overview, OEM strategies and business model overview. It examines key drivers, restraints and challenges, provides an electric vehicle (EV) demand analysis in China from 2009 to 2015, and maps domestic and international OEM activities in the market. Profiles of key suppliers and OEM activities are provided. Also included is an in-depth examination of EV infrastructure development and incentive packages announced by Chinese government. In this research, Frost & Sullivan's expert analysts thoroughly examine the following markets: neighbourhood electric vehicles (NEVs), city electric vehicles (CEVs), extended-range electric vehicles (eREVs) and high performance electric vehicles (HPEVs).

1. Research Scope

2. Objective and Methodology

3. Definitions

4. Executive Summary
- 4.1 Powertrain Technology Roadmap
- 4.2 Comparison of Various Propulsion Technologies
- 4.3 Electric Vehicle Manufacturers by Region
- 4.4 Product Lifecycle Analysis of Electric Vehicles in China
- 4.5 Electric Vehicle Market Drivers and Restraints in China
- 4.6 Chinese Electric Vehicle Market Sales Scenario Analysis
- 4.7 Current and Expected Electric Vehicle Models in China
- 4.8 OEM Strategy for Electric Vehicles in China
- 4.9 Electric Vehicle Value Chain Overview in China
- 4.10 Electric Vehicle Who–Supplies-Whom Snapshot in China

5. Overview of Global Electric Vehicle Market Development
- 5.1 Global Market Size Forecast
- 5.2 Global EV Model Analysis
- 5.3 Global OEM Analysis
- 5.4 Business Models

6. Chinese Market Outlook and Forecast

7. Chinese Vehicle Manufacturer Analysis
- 7.1 EV Model Analysis
- 7.2 Analysis of Chinese OEMs
- 7.3 Major OEM Profiles

8. Value Chain Analysis
- 8.1 Overview of the Value Chain
- 8.2 Electric Drive System Analysis
- 8.3 EV Battery Analysis

9. EV Electric Motor Analysis

10. Appendix

11. About Frost & Sullivan

List of Figures

- Electric Vehicle Market: Overview of Typical Models (China), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: Annual Sales of EVs (China), 2009-2015
- Electric Vehicle Market: Who-Supplies-Whom Analysis (China), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: Sales Forecasts Scenario Analysis (World), 2008-2015
- Electric Vehicle Market: Planned Electric Vehicle Product Offerings (World), 2009-2015
- Electric Vehicle Market: Specification for the Major EV Models (World), 2009-2015
- Electric Vehicle Market: Motor Power and Torque Analysis (World), 2009-2015
- Electric Vehicle Market: Analysis of OEM EV Strategies (World), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: Product Analysis (World), 2009-2015
- Electric Vehicle Market: Promotion Analysis (World), 2009-2015
- Electric Vehicle Market: Production Analysis (World), 2009-2015
- Electric Vehicle Market: Lithium-ion Battery Supply Chain Analysis (World), 2009-2015
- Electric Vehicle Market: Potential Business Models (World), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: Market Drivers Ranked in Order of Impact (China), 2011-2015
- Electric Vehicle Market: Market Restraints Ranked in Order of Impact (China), 2011-2015
- Electric Vehicle Market: Financial Subsidies to Customers (China), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: Rare Earth Reserves by Country (World), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: Lithium Reserves by Country (World), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: MSRP Comparison between EV Models and the Counterparts (World), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: Annual Sales of EVs (China), 2009-2015
- Electric Vehicle Market: Product Planning (China), 2009-2013
- Electric Vehicle Market: Parameters for Key EV Models (China), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: OEM Strategy Analysis (China), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: Product Analysis (China), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: Promotion Activities Analysis (China), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: Production Analysis (China), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: Supply Chain Analysis (China), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: Who-Supplies-Whom Analysis (China), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: Analysis of Various Lithium-ion Battery Chemistries (China), 2010

LOC

- Electric Vehicle Market: Energy Scenario Overview (World), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: Powertrain Technology Roadmap (World), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: Comparison of Various Propulsion Technologies (World), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: Automotive Manufacturers by Regional Headquarters (World), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: Life Cycle Analysis (World), 2008-2050
- Electric Vehicle Market: Market Drivers and Restraints (China), 2011-2015
- Electric Vehicle Market: EV Sales Scenario Analysis (China), 2009-2015
- Electric Vehicle Market: Current and Expected Electric Vehicle Models (China), 2009-2012
- Electric Vehicle Market: OEM Strategy (China), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: Value Chain Overview (China), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: Sales Forecasts Scenario Analysis (World), 2008-2015
- Electric Vehicle Market: Market Size Breakdown by Regions by Electric Vehicle Types (World), 2009-2015
- Electric Vehicle Market: Planned Electric Vehicle Product Offerings (World), 2009-2013
- Electric Vehicle Market: Electric Drive Range and Maximum Speed Evaluation (World), 2010 Electric Vehicle Market: Lithium-ion Battery Capacity Analysis (World), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: Analysis of OEM EV Strategies (World), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: Traditional Model-Tesla Sales Network (World), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: Battery Leasing Model (World), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: Car Leasing Model (World), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: Integrator Model-Better Place (World), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: Market Drivers and Restraints (China), 2011-2015
- Electric Vehicle Market: Petroleum Balance Sheet (China), 1990-2012
- Electric Vehicle Market: Carbon Emissions Analysis by Countries (World), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: Actual and Expected EV Models (China), 2009-2012
- Electric Vehicle Market: Cities Offering Financial Subsidies (China), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: Local Government Stimulus Plan (China), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: EV Charging Stations Overview (China), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: Charging Infrastructure Plans (China), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: EV Sales Scenario Analysis (China), 2009-2015
- Electric Vehicle Market: Frost & Sullivan Scenario Analysis (China), 2009-2015
- Electric Vehicle Market: Optimistic Scenario Analysis (China), 2009-2015
- Electric Vehicle Market: Conservative Scenario Analysis (China), 2009-2015
- Electric Vehicle Market: Frost & Sullivan Forecast Breakdown by Electric Vehicle Types (China), 2009-2015
- Electric Vehicle Market: Actual and Expected Electric Vehicle Models (China), 2009-2012
- Electric Vehicle Market: Electric Drive Range and Maximum Speed Evaluation (China), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: OEM Strategy (China), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: Local OEM Electric Vehicle Development Strategy (China), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: Value Chain Overview (China), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: Supply Chain Structure (China), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: Schematic of CEV Driveline (China), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: Schematic of eREV Driveline (World), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: Cost Breakdown for CEV-20kWh (China), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: Cost Breakdown for eREV-15kWh (China), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: Schematic of Lithium-ion Battery Pack (China), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: Cost Breakdown (China), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: Cell Cost (China), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: Battery Technology Roadmap (China), 2006-2016
- Electric Vehicle Market: Schematic of Electric Motor System (China), 2010
- Electric Vehicle Market: Electric Motor System Cost Analysis (China), 2010

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