The State of the LTE Market: CAPEX, Deployments, Subscribers, and Services

The State of the LTE Market takes an exacting look at the LTE ecosystem. The report first estimates global LTE spending by year and by region for the years 2009–2014. Second, leveraging LTE announcements made by the 3GPP, In-Stat reviews the telecommunications environment of every country that has a mobile operator and that made an announcement committing to LTE airlinks in the future.

Understanding telecommunications in each nation is important. Before a mobile operator deploys LTE services, there are several steps that must be taken. The mobile operator must acquire spectrum (providing a national regulator has made spectrum available). Operators that have made recent HSPA investments will likely leverage those investments. After exploring these factors, the report presents:

-LTE subscribers by country. The subscriber counts are further broken out by TD-LTE of FDD-LTE subscribers.
-Along the lines of subscribers, In-Stat looks at LTE POPs. In Stat has also developed a tool called multiple POPs, where we anticipate areas where multiple vendors will be offering LTE services.
-LTE handset and LTE backhaul capacity is forecast by region.
-For the United States and Canada, LTE FDD subscribers, TD-LTE subscribers, LTE POPs, and LTE multiple POPs are forecast segmented by the mobile operators that have committed to LTE.

The State of the LTE Market takes an exacting look at the LTE ecosystem. The report first estimates global LTE spending by year and by region for the years 2009–2014. Second, leveraging LTE announcements made by the 3GPP, In-Stat reviews the telecommunications environment of every country that has a mobile operator and that made an announcement committing to LTE airlinks in the future.

Understanding telecommunications in each nation is important. Before a mobile operator deploys LTE services, there are several steps that must be taken. The mobile operator must acquire spectrum (providing a national regulator has made spectrum available). Operators that have made recent HSPA investments will likely leverage those investments. After considering these factors, the report finally presents:

- LTE subscribers by country. The subscriber counts are further broken out by TD-LTE of FDD-LTE subscribers.
- Along the lines of subscribers, In-Stat looks at LTE POPs. In-Stat has also developed a tool called multiple POPs, where we anticipate areas where multiple vendors will be offering LTE services.
- LTE handset and LTE backhaul capacity is forecast by region.
- For the United States and Canada, LTE FDD subscribers, TD-LTE subscribers, LTE POPs, and LTE Multiple POPs are forecast segmented by the mobile operators that have committed to LTE. SHOW LESS READ MORE >

Executive Summary
Introduction
LTE CAPEX
- Asia/Pacific Publicly Announced LTE Spending Plans
- CALA Publicly Announced LTE Spending Plans
- Eastern Europe Publicly Announced LTE Spending Plans
- Western Europe Publicly Announced LTE Spending Plans
- Middle East and Africa Publicly Announced LTE Spending Plans
- United States and Canada Publicly Announced LTE Spending Plans
- The US Wholesale LTE Market
Asia/Pacific LTE Deployments, Launches, POPs, and Subscriptions
- South Korea Barriers to the LTE Market
CALA LTE Deployments, Launches, POPs, and Subscriptions
Eastern Europe LTE Deployments, Launches, POPs, and Subscriptions
- Rest of Region, Eastern Europe
Western Europe LTE Deployments, Launches, POPs, and Subscriptions
Middle East and Africa LTE Deployments, Launches, POPs, and Subscriptions
The United States and Canada LTE Deployments, Launches, POPs, and Subscriptions
- The State of the Canadian LTE Market
Global Roll-Up Charts, LTE Service Revenues, Capacity, and LTE Handsets
- LTE Services
- LTE Capacity
- LTE Handsets
Methodology
Glossary

List of Tables

Table 1. LTE CAPEX by Region
Table 2. Asia/Pacific (Armenia–Kazakhstan) Cellular Subscriptions, Populations, Mobile Operators That Have Committed to LTE, with Anticipated Launch Dates, LTE Deployments, and Trials (Subscriptions/Populations in Thousands)
Table 3. Asia/Pacific (Malaysia–Uzbekistan, and Rest of Region) Cellular Subscriptions, Populations, Mobile Operators That Have Committed to LTE, with Anticipated Launch Dates, LTE Deployments, and Trials (Subscriptions/Populations in Thousands)
Table 4. Asia/Pacific (Armenia–Kazakhstan) Spectrum Availability and Competitive Factors Affecting LTE
Table 5. Asia/Pacific (Malaysia–Uzbekistan, and Rest of Region) Spectrum Availability and Competitive Factors Affecting LTE
Table 6. Asia/Pacific (Armenia–Kazakhstan) TD-LTE and FDD-LTE Subscriptions by Country (Subscriptions in Thousands)
Table 7. Asia/Pacific (Malaysia–Kazakhstan, and Rest of Region) TD-LTE and FDD-LTE Subscriptions by Country (Subscriptions in Thousands)
Table 8. Asia/Pacific (Armenia–Kazakhstan) LTE POPs and Multiple POPs by Country (POPs in Thousands)
Table 9. Asia/Pacific (Malaysia–Uzbekistan, and Rest of Region) LTE POPs and Multiple POPs by Country (POPs in Thousands)
Table 10. CALA Cellular Subscriptions, Populations, Mobile Operators That Have Committed to LTE, with Anticipated Launch Dates, LTE Deployments, and Trials (Subscriptions/Populations in Thousands)
Table 11. CALA Spectrum Availability and Competitive Factors Affecting LTE
Table 12. CALA TD-LTE and FDD-LTE Subscriptions by Country (Subscriptions in Thousands)
Table 13. CALA LTE POPs and Multiple POPs by Country (POPs in Thousands)
Table 14. Eastern Europe Cellular Subscriptions, Populations, Mobile Operators That Have Committed to LTE, with Anticipated Launch Dates, LTE Deployments, and Trials (Subscriptions/Populations in Thousands)
Table 15. Eastern Europe Spectrum Availability and Competitive Factors Affecting LTE
Table 16. Mobile Operators in “Rest of Eastern Europe” That Have 3 Million or More Subscribers
Table 17. Eastern Europe TD-LTE and FDD-LTE Subscriptions by Country (Subscriptions in Thousands)
Table 18. Eastern Europe LTE POPs and Multiple POPs by Country (POPs in Thousands)
Table 19. Western Europe (Austria–Italy) Cellular Subscriptions, Populations, Mobile Operators That Have Committed to LTE, with Anticipated Launch Dates, LTE Deployments, and Trials (Subscriptions/Populations in Thousands)
Table 20. Western Europe (Netherlands–United Kingdom, and Rest of Region) Cellular Subscriptions, Populations, Mobile Operators That Have Committed to LTE, with Anticipated Launch Dates, LTE Deployments, and Trials (Subscriptions/Populations in Thousands)
Table 21. Western Europe (Austria–Italy) Spectrum Availability and Competitive Factors Affecting LTE
Table 22. Western Europe (Netherlands–United Kingdom, and Rest of Region) Spectrum Availability and Competitive Factors Affecting LTE
Table 23. Western Europe (Austria–Italy) TD-LTE and FDD-LTE Subscriptions by Country (Subscriptions in Thousands)
Table 24. Western Europe (Netherlands–United Kingdom, and Rest of Region) TD-LTE and FDD-LTE Subscriptions by Country (Subscriptions in Thousands)
Table 25. Western Europe (Austria–Italy) LTE POPs and Multiple POPs by Country (POPs in Thousands)
Table 26. Western Europe (Netherlands–United Kingdom, and Rest of Region) LTE POPs and Multiple POPs by Country (POPs in Thousands)
Table 27. Middle East and Africa Cellular Subscriptions, Populations, Mobile Operators That Have Committed to LTE, with Anticipated Launch Dates, LTE Deployments, and Trials (Subscriptions/Populations in Thousands)
Table 28. Middle East and Africa Spectrum Availability and Competitive Factors Affecting LTE
Table 29. Middle East and Africa TD-LTE and FDD-LTE Subscriptions by Country (Subscriptions in Thousands)
Table 30. Middle East and Africa LTE POPs and Multiple POPs by Country (POPs in Thousands)
Table 31. United States, by Mobile Operator, Cellular Subscribers, Populations, Mobile Operators That Have Committed to LTE, and LTE Launches, Deployments, and Trials (Subscriptions in Thousands)
Table 32. United States, by Mobile Operator, Spectrum Availability, and Competitive Factors Affecting LTE
Table 33. United States, by Mobile Operator, Cellular Subscribers, TD-LTE, and FDD-LTE Subscriptions (Subscriptions in Thousands)
Table 34. US LTE POPs and Multiple POPs by Mobile Operator (POPs in Thousands)
Table 35. US Market LTE Wholesale Services, Emergency Response, and Other LTE Applications
Table 36. Canada, by Mobile Operator, Cellular Subscriptions, Populations, Mobile Operators That Have Committed to LTE, and Competitive Factors Affecting LTE Deployments (Subscriptions in Thousands)
Table 37. Canada, by Mobile Operator, Cellular Subscribers, TD-LTE and FDD-LTE Subscriptions (Subscriptions in Thousands)
Table 38. Canada LTE POPs and Multiple POPs by Mobile Operator (POPs in Thousands)
Table 39. Global LTE Subscriptions, TD-LTE and FDD-LTE, 2009–2014 (Subscriptions in Thousands)
Table 40. Global LTE POPS and Multiple POPs, 2009–2014 (POPs in Thousands)
Table 41. Current LTE Data Service Plans
Table 42. Estimated Monthly ARPU of LTE Service Plans, 2009–2014
Table 43. Global LTE Service Revenues, by Region, 2009–2014 (US$ in Millions)
Table 44. Global Capacity for LTE Services at Macro Base Stations, by Region, 2009–2014 (in Gbps)
Table 45. LTE Handsets Sold Yearly, by Region, 2009–2014 (Units in Thousands)

List of Figures

Figure 1. Global LTE Subscribers by Region, 2009–2014 (Subscriptions in Thousands)
Figure 2. The Samsung Craft
Figure 3. LTE Handsets Sold Yearly by Region, 2009–2014 (Units in Thousands)

LTE Subscriber Growth will See a Bumpy Road on Its Path to Nearly 115 Million Subscribers by 2014

While LTE is destined to become the dominant wireless airlink, several formidable challenges will make its widespread adoption slower than many expect. For starters, spectrum has to be cleared, licensed and either allocated or sold off before LTE takes hold. As every country has its own telecommunications regulations, these factors will take varying periods of time to be resolved. However, despite this difficult path, In-Stat (www.in-stat.com) forecasts that the number of LTE subscribers will approach 115 million by 2014.

"US operator LTE CAPEX spending will drive wireless leadership from Asia and Europe to North America," says Chris Kissel, Industry Analyst for In-Stat. "From 2009 to 2014, more than one quarter of global LTE CAPEX spending will occur in the US. As a result, the US will have more LTE subscribers than the entire Asia/Pacific region by the end of 2014, even though it will have less than half the POPs."

Recent In-Stat research found the following:
- Although the vast majority of LTE subscribers will be FDD-LTE, TD-LTE will have a CAGR through 2014 of almost twice that of FDD-LTE.
- Working through technology partners, Huawei and Ericsson, Vodafone purchased 1,500 LTE base stations in Germany in 2010.
- LTE networks will have better than half of all last mile backhaul capacity in North America by 2014.
- Despite the potential for LTE services in China and India, Japan is very likely to have the most LTE subscribers in Asia/Pacific by the end of 2014.

Recent In-Stat research, The State of the LTE Market: CAPEX, Deployments, Subscribers, and Services, examines the essential elements of LTE. It provides an LTE progress report and looks into the future of the technology. The research includes:
- LTE CAPEX spending by region
- LTE deployments and launches by country
- LTE POPs and subscriptions by country
- FDD-LTE and TD-LTE subscriptions by country
- North American FDD-LTE and TD-LTE subscriptions by mobile operators
- LTE ARPU and service revenues by region
- LTE handset forecasts by region
- LTE backhaul capacity forecasts by region
- LTE POPs and multiple POPs by region

This research is part of In-Stat’s Wireless Broadband service, which provides analysis and forecasts of the development and deployment of current and future broadband wireless technologies, such as HSPA, LTE, and WiMAX.