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Australia Autos Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Jan 2011, Pages: 48
The Australia Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Australia's automotive industry.
Data released by Australia’s Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI) during November 2010 showed that new vehicle sales stood at 861,645 units for the first 10 months of the year, an increase of 13% year on year (y-o-y). Breaking down the headline vehicle figure, a total of 491,678 new passenger cars were sold over the Jan-Oct 2010 period, alongside 195,924 SUVs, 150,603 light commercial vehicles (LCVs) and 23,440 heavy commercial vehicles (HCVs).
If this 10-month cumulative performance were replicated over the full year, this would see a total of 1.034mn vehicles sold. Our current forecast for the full year is slightly more bullish than this, calling for aggregate new vehicle sales of 1.05mn for 2010, representing a 12% increase y-o-y.
On the production side, output for the first 10 months of 2010 stands at 206,842 units, an increase of 14% y-o-y. For now, we retain our full-year forecast of 237,956 units, but would state that risks to this figure now lie to the upside, given the strong performance year to date.
Risks to our production, sales, import and export forecasts are currently finely poised. An unexpected increase in interest rates (to 4.75%) by the Reserve Bank of Australia in November 2010 could now see some consumers putting off the purchase of a car until the New Year, which could see a slight downside risk to our current forecasts. Moreover, the world could yet experience a double-dip economic downturn, especially if there is a ‘hard landing’ for consumer demand in China. Such a scenario would result in slower economic growth, job losses and a reversal of the current positive trajectory of consumer demand (and hence domestic auto sales) in Australia in 2011. It would also impact on car demand across the region, adversely affecting the production and exports of new vehicles by Australia.
Cash For Clunkers Rebate To Boost Sales In 2011? One stimulant to vehicle new sales in Australia could come from Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s announcement in July 2010 that buyers of new fuel-efficient vehicles should receive an AUD2,000 rebate for the trading-in of their older, less fuel-efficient vehicles made before 1995. The government has promised to put AUD430mn into this scheme, enough to cover some 200,000 cars, which is scheduled to start on January 1 2011. The FCAI has backed the proposal, but the industry body’s CEO, Andrew McKellar, has since gone further, suggesting to The Age newspaper in October 2010 that an AUD5,000 rebate would be more appropriate, but with the proviso that this rebate is then more strictly targeted to people buying the most environmentally-friendly models available. McKellar would also see the number of cars covered by the scheme cut to the 40,000-50,000 mark.
This way, the FCAI believes that the total cost of the scheme to the Australian taxpayer would be less, but the overall environmental benefits would be the same. The FCAI would like the money saved by adopting this more targeted approach (estimated by The Age at some AUD200mn) to then be reinvested back into the country’s Green Car Innovation Fund, whose budget was itself cut by AUD200mn during the 2010 election campaign.
Clearly, any more focused rebate scheme would benefit the lowest-emitting vehicles on sale in the Australian market, such as Toyota’s Prius, Daimler’s smartfor two and Suzuki’s Alto. At the present time, the rebate would be offered for trading in mid-range cars such as the Holden Commodore, Ford Falcon and Toyota Camry models.
Industry Minister Kim Carr has said that he is happy to discuss the FCAI’s suggestions, but has warned that he would not want to tighten access to the rebate in a way that would be detrimental to models produced within Australia.
Looking forward, the increased parliamentary representation for the Green Party following the August 2010 elections could provide a further boost to eco-friendly vehicle initiatives in Australia.''
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