|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Poland Infrastructure Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Jan 2011, Pages: 113
Poland Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, infrastructure associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Poland's infrastructure industry.
The strength of Poland’s infrastructure sector has ensured the country remains the BMI Infrastructure team’s top pick in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). We are maintaining our outlook for robust growth in Poland, with construction industry growth of 4.6% in 2010 and 4.5% in 2011. The infrastructure sector is the dominant force behind this outlook as non-civil construction struggles to return to previous highs. Poland’s construction sector (which according to BMI’s definition is formed of two subsectors: infrastructure; and, residential and non-residential building) was the regional outperformer in 2009, a role it looks set to continue in 2010, with contractions expected in most other CEE construction sectors. Specifically, this can be traced back to the country’s infrastructure sector, which grew by 21.5% in 2009 with industry value overtaking residential and non-residential building to take the biggest share of construction industry value (55.5%). In 2011, infrastructure is forecast to grow by a further 10.2% and is anticipated to outperform the construction sector as a whole over the medium term, with average annual growth of 6.8% between 2010 and 2015.
Our optimistic outlook for Poland is based on a number of factors:
- Transport infrastructure investments have been the biggest driver of growth in 2009 and will continue to be over the coming years. Growth of 21% for the subsector is expected to be followed by 13% growth in 2010, owing to substantial investment in roads. The National Road Construction Programme (2007-2015), is expected to oversee the investment of US$60.3bn in Poland's roads. The programme has generally been progressing well with substantial contract awards. BMI estimates that US$32bn worth of road projects are currently under way in Poland. Rail investment, which has been weak over recent years, is expected to be stepped up, with a forecast of 6% annual average industry growth between 2010 and 2015. In July 2010, PKP Polish Rail, Poland's rail track manager, announced it had been allocated PLN30bn (US$10bn) for investment into the country's rail tracks between 2010 and 2013.
- UEFA 2012 European Football Championships preparations have been a key catalyst for investment, bringing a sense of urgency to transport upgrades. It has also driven projects in the residential and non-residential building sector, with three new stadia under construction and one being refurbished. In addition, sports facilities and tourism infrastructure has been fuelling construction industry growth over recent years. Although BMI expects that the peak of investment has passed, there is still a substantial amount of direct and indirect investment to be made.
- Energy and utilities investments are expected to grow substantially; however, this is a much longer-term outlook. Poland is planning to build two new nuclear power plants at an estimated cost of EUR15-18bn. Keen interest has been registered from international players in the contracts; however, with construction not due to start until 2016 ( and to be completed in 2022), the impact on the energy and utilities infrastructure industry value will only be notable toward the end of our extended forecast scenario; indeed it has not yet been priced in as delays have already been announced and no contract is in place. Nevertheless, it does illustrate long-term potential for growth in the sector. Over the shorter term, the privatisation drive for state-owned energy companies should increase investment in the sector when new owners come on board. In addition, a renewable energy push should create some value, although this will be limited due to the small construction element.
- Poland’s construction sector has become a safe haven for European construction companies who upped their exposure to CEE in the 12 months preceding the global financial crisis. Over the past 18-24 months, construction companies and building materials providers have all highlighted investment in Poland as a means of cushioning revenues and order backlogs, a trend we expect to see continue at least into H1 2011.''
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
|
|
|
|
