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France Defence and Security Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Jan 2011, Pages: 131
Business Monitor International's France Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on France's defence and security industry.
France, like many European countries, has been scaling back defence spending as part of a programme of fiscal tightening. In 2010, BMI estimates that France’s overall defence spending totalled EUR45.146, down 1.8% from EUR45.991 in 2009, as budgetary austerity measures took effect. Defence has taken a relatively bigger hit than many department, falling from 4.3% to 4.0% of overall public spending. In 2011, we forecast that defence spending will rise slightly in euro terms, by 1.0%, to EUR45.5973, or EUR722.27 per capita, taking it to 4.1% of government expenditure. We expect defence spending to grow rather slowly over the next decade, with the euro terms growth rate remaining below 2% until 2019. In constant price terms, growth will be even slower, below 1% until 2019 (when we expect a rate of 1.23%), except a peak of 4% in 2014, when Europe’s fiscal and economic recovery should be well under way, barring a serious relapse into crisis.
By 2019, BMI expects French defence expenditure to total EUR52.9153bn, or 4.3% of overall government spending – the same level as 10 years before. Throughout the forecast period, spending will remain at 2.3% of GDP, as it has done since 2007, thus remaining comfortably above the NATO recommended minimum guideline of 2%. Maintaining a well-funded military will remain a priority, but, as recent reductions in expenditure indicate, not at the expense of budgetary soundness, despite rapidly-rising spending in the developing world, including among potential strategic rivals to France’s international interests.
In November 2010, France and the UK inked a landmark treaty which envisages increasing military cooperation to an unprecedented level, including the pooling of resources. The deal comes at a time of straightened budgets for both countries, and a growing realisation that armed forces must change in order to make them more effective and responsive to growing global threats, including terrorism, cyber warfare and arms races in the emerging world.
The pact aims to reduce duplication, lower development costs and consolidate some research functions, creating more streamlined forces and defence development industries in both countries. Key planks include the creation of a 10,000-strong joint expeditionary force involving 5,000 troops from each country in all three services, training and exercising together from 2011 and prepared for ‘high-intensity’ combat, rescue and peacekeeping missions; and the development of an integrated strike force to be deployed on either nation’s aircraft carriers.
In November 2010, France said that a new deal had been agreed between the seven countries due to buy the Airbus A400M military transport aircraft. France is now due to take its first delivery in 2013. The agreement is something of a victory for France, which had been a champion of the programme as other countries got cold feet due to massive cost overruns.'
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