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Iraq Defence and Security Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Jan 2011, Pages: 81
Business Monitor International's Iraq Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Iraq's defence and security industry.
Seen from an international perspective, the most significant developments in the Middle East in the coming twelve months are likely to focus on Iraq. While the Palestinian issue and the Iranian nuclear program will also command attention, it is in Iraq that the most change is likely to be seen.
Iraq faces the prospect of a security vacuum as the US withdraws its troops from the country. After September 1 2010 the US forces officially assumed an ‘advisory’ role with the end of combat operations. Their ongoing mission is restricted to training and supporting Iraq’s own military and police forces. This ongoing training role aside, the remaining 50,000 US troops in Iraq are scheduled to be withdrawn by the end of 2011.
The ongoing security issue is the need to tackle the insurgency. Although the level of violent activity has declined from its peak there is real fear it will re-emerge in the space left by the departure of foreign forces. There is also a bubbling level of interethnic violence, principally emanating from clashes between the Sunni majority and the smaller but politically powerful Shi’a minority.
Externally, Iraq shares borders with most of the other troubled countries in the region and is a key piece in any regional power dynamic, more so if it is seen to be weak internally.
If the US withdraws it risks leaving a vacuum. If the US decides it cannot leave then any decision to keep forces in Iraq will be deeply unpopular with the US electorate, as well as with many groups in the Middle East.
Economically, Iraq is struggling to make headway in the face of ongoing and serious electricity shortages. While higher oil prices are providing some shelter the broader economy is struggling to create sufficient jobs or generate enough investment to pull the domestic economy forward, away from the oil industry. Manufacturing and agriculture are both badly affected by the lack of investment and manufacturing is also hampered by the inadequate supply of electricity. The main opportunity for growth outside the oil sector in the next few years will be in the construction sector, which is being supported by government investment and incentives.'
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