Russia Defence and Security Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, January 2011, Pages: 116
Business Monitor International's Russia Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Russia's defence and security industry.
Russia’s key defence plans are the Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation (published in 2010) and the State Programme of Armaments (GPV-2015). These specify all aspects of military planning, expenditure and modernisation. Russia has up to now been an exporter rather than an importer of military hardware, but this is changing, especially with increasing multinational involvement.
Russia’s economy can expect an export-led bounce in growth into 2011, with consumption and investment unlikely to return to robust growth until 2012. That said, we believe that rising real GDP per capita, a banking sector recovery, a stronger rouble and increased foreign investment into non-energy industries will set the stage for private consumption to become increasingly important to Russian growth over the medium term.
While we remain confident in our 2010 and 2011 forecasts of 4.1% and 4.3% GDP growth respectively, we do not see a return to pre-crisis growth rates, due to the sensitivity of Russia’s manufacturing industry to Western export markets and international demand. The weak outlook on the European economy suggests that the manufacturing sector will continue to face macroeconomic headwinds, underpinning our medium-term economic growth forecast. We see growth averaging 4.4% from 2010-2014 which, though below the average 7.0% witnessed in the five years leading up to the financial crisis, nevertheless will make it by far the fastest growing G8 economy over the coming years.
President Dmitry Medvedev conducted a high profile visit to China on September 27, meeting with the country’s Premier Wen Jiabao and vowing to step up bilateral cooperation. Wen later told journalists that China regards Russia as its ‘most important strategic partner’, while Medvedev and his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao attended a ceremony marking the completion of the Chinese-Russian crude oil pipeline. The relationship between the two countries has the potential to strengthen further – as trade links intensify and Moscow attempts to secure further energy contracts with Beijing – although obstacles in the relationship remain.
On September 28, President Medvedev dismissed Moscow Mayor Yury Luzhkov – a decision supported by the majority of the population. Medvedev fired the mayor owing to a loss of confidence, following programmes on state-controlled television accusing the mayor of corruption and favouritism towards his wife, developer Yelena Baturina. The mayor’s dismissal has bolstered Medvedev’s position in the near term, given that prolonged ructions could have seriously damaged the president’s credibility. That said, we highlight that Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s likely important role in removing Luzhkov will only serve to re-enforce perceptions that he remains the dominant power, raising further doubts about whether Medvedev will stand for re-election in 2012."
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Russia Security SWOT
- Russia Defence Industry SWOT
- Russia Political SWOT
- Russia Economic SWOT
- Russia Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
- Global Hotspots
- Latin America: More Of The Same
- Western Europe
- Central Europe
- South Eastern Europe
- Russia And The Former Soviet Union
- Middle East: Mostly The Same Old Challenges
- Sub-Saharan Africa: Definitive Elections Pending
- Asia: Accommodating A More Powerful China
- Wild Cards
Global Security Outlook
- Regional Political Analysis
- The Future Of NATO
- The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
- Security Risk Ratings
- BMI’s Security Ratings
- Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings
- Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Russia’s Security Ratings
- City Terrorism Rating
- Table: BMI’s Central And Eastern Europe And Central Asia City Terrorism Index
- Political Overview
- Table: The North Caucasus – Profile Of The Republics
- Security Overview
- External Security Situation
- Armed Forces And Government Spending
- Armed Forces
- Defence Budget
- Historical Strength
- International Deployments
- Table: Russia’s Foreign Deployments 2008
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
- Market Overview
- Industry Trends And Developments
- Table: Key Players In Russia’s Defence Sector, 2005
- Arms Trade Overview
- Procurement Trends And Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Russia’s Armed Forces, 2000-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
- Table: Russia’s Available Manpower for Military Services
- Table: Russia’s Government Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015
- Table: Russia Defence Exports 2008-2015
- Table: Russia Defence Exports 2008-2015
- Table: Russia’s Defence Trade Balance 2008-2015
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Russia - Economic Activity, 2008-2015
Company Profiles
- Irkut
- Kazan Helicopters
- Rosoboronexport State Corporation
- Russian Aircraft Corporation MiG (RSK MiG)
- Sukhoi Aviation Corporation
- United Aircraft Corporation
- Uralvagonzavod
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Defence Industry
- City Terrorism Rating
- Table: Methodology
- Sources
- Irkut
- Kazan Helicopters
- Rosoboronexport State Corporation
- Russian Aircraft Corporation MiG (RSK MiG)
- Sukhoi Aviation Corporation
- United Aircraft Corporation
- Uralvagonzavod
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