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Slovenia Defence and Security Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Jan 2011, Pages: 91
Business Monitor International's Slovenia Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Slovenia's defence and security industry.
Slovenia’s defence spending was cut substantially in 2010, by 9.74% to US$707mn, from US$783mn in 2009, a reduction from US$383.40 per head to US$342.40 per head, according to BMI estimates. At constant prices, this represented a deep 11% cut in spending and reduction from 3.7% to 3.2% of public expenditure as the government looked to make savings from the defence budget. While the economic recovery is expected to be slow, BMI forecasts a respectable increase in defence spending of 8.62% in 2011, to US$768mn, or US$371.0mn per head. This represents a slight increase to 3.3% of total government expenditure.
Over the next decade, we expect steady increases in defence spending, with rates of between 3.31% (2014) and 4.77% (2015) to 2019. In euro terms (Slovenia uses the single currency), growth rates will be around 5% annually, with a high of 5.4% and a low of 4.6% In constant price terms, expenditure increases will be 3% or below. We expect defence slowly to rise as a proportion of government spending over the forecast period, to 4.2% in 2019. In 2019, we expect defence expenditure to reach US$1.053mn, or US$506.50 per head.
Defence reform is ongoing and has three general objectives. Firstly, abolition of conscription; secondly a shift from a reserve-based to a professional-based force; and thirdly to move from a territorial defenceoriented force to a deployable force. The first two goals had been achieved as of late 2010, but the third will take longer to implement, as it involves fundamental changes in the way the armed forces operate, train and are equipped. There is also a new emphasis on creating a ‘specialised force’ that fits with Slovenia’s strategic needs, the changing dynamics of world defence (with the rise of asymmetrical and border-free warfare) and the country’s international commitments.
Like several countries in ‘New Europe’, while Slovenia is not able to contribute large numbers of troops, it is keen to keep to its international commitments and support its EU and NATO allies in deployments abroad. These commitments tend to be more about offering niche experts to overseas missions and symbolic contribution than boosting the number of boots on the ground Over the long run, though, we hold to our view that Slovenia is among the most politically stable markets in Central and Eastern Europe. While the threat of home-grown terrorism in Slovenia is generally rather low, freedom of movement within the EU and the country’s proximity to less stable countries and major drug and human trafficking routes means that it must remain vigilant of the potential for terrorists and other violent criminals to penetrate its borders.'
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